NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	86		Excitement	6.4 [429]		MVP	Kevin Love (MIN): +14.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	93		Comeback	3.4 [460]		LVP	Derrick Williams (MIN): -9.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.09	0.09	0.03	22	58%	0.19	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Wayne Ellington	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04	0.10	0.01	0.06	10	71%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	13	35%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Lee	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.02	10	41%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Williams	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	15	39%	-0.04	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.01	-0.02	9	65%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	11	75%	0.19	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	57%	0.08	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	12	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	6	37%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	20	45%	0.06	3	-0.11	7	100%	0.06
Jeremy Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	28.8	15.8	24.5	2.6	31.6	128.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +4.7%

MEM +23.1%

MEM +25.9%

MIN -3.3%

MIN -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MEM	NBA	MIN	MEM	NBA
this game	16.7	14.7	15.6	94.5	101.1	102.8
season	15.3	15.6		102.6	102.0
opponent	15.7	15.1		100.1	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	17.1	16.7	16.7	16.5	16.7
MEM	14.9	15.3	15.3	13.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Johnson	41	41	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-13	19	16.7	16.8	-0.12	15.0	14.5	0.56
Brad Miller	8	8	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-8	9	14.5	17.0	-2.46	15.0	14.7	0.29
Michael Beasley	22	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.01	-1	-6	5	15.4	17.2	-1.76	16.3	14.3	2.02
Malcolm Lee	25	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-6	5	16.6	16.8	-0.20	14.3	14.9	-0.58
Kevin Love	73	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-4	1	16.2	19.1	-2.88	14.9	14.0	0.88
Martell Webster	64	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-5	3	16.7	16.9	-0.20	14.6	15.1	-0.47
Anthony Tolliver	24	25	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-1	-5	18.6	16.1	2.49	14.6	14.8	-0.14
Derrick Williams	77	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-1	-5	16.9	15.6	1.31	14.6	15.8	-1.20
Luke Ridnour	71	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	3	-13	16.9	16.3	0.57	14.8	14.5	0.34
Wayne Ellington	50	52	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	6	-19	17.4	16.0	1.36	14.1	15.5	-1.43

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.J. Mayo	30	30	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	-2	11	15.0	14.6	0.34	17.5	16.4	1.12
Dante Cunningham	78	76	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	-1	9	14.7	15.1	-0.39	16.9	15.9	0.97
Rudy Gay	73	73	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	-1	9	14.7	14.8	-0.13	16.8	16.4	0.38
Mike Conley	63	63	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	3	1	14.4	15.4	-1.04	16.3	17.7	-1.35
Zach Randolph	41	41	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	-1	9	15.1	14.5	0.60	17.2	16.4	0.86
Marreese Speights	62	62	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.30	-1	8	-9	15.2	13.7	1.54	16.3	17.7	-1.43
Tony Allen	67	65	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	3	1	14.4	15.6	-1.24	17.0	16.2	0.78
Quincy Pondexter	24	23	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.20	-2	9	-11	13.7	15.1	-1.39	16.7	16.7	-0.01
Jeremy Pargo	22	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	10	-13	15.8	14.4	1.36	15.9	17.0	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.41,0.32,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.68,0.69,0.81,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 89, NYK 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.9%
CHI 81, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.33,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.76,0.58,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.93,1,1,0.98,1	92.9%
SAS 89, DAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	92.6%