NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	5.2 [759]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +7.0%
Toronto Raptors	87		Comeback	1.2 [536]		LVP	Doug Christie (TOR): -11.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.06	-0.02	19	60%	0.18	5	-0.11	5	100%	0.04
Sasha Danilovic	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	8	76%	0.11	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	13	58%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.00	8	56%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martin Muursepp	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Willie Anderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.03	3	-0.07	10	60%	-0.04
Ike Austin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	9	35%	-0.06	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Popeye Jones	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	67%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Rozier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Earl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	20	48%	-0.02	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	14	53%	0.01	3	-0.10	15	87%	0.02
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	15	34%	-0.05	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.02
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	13	47%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	28.5	15.7	29.7	1.8	33.2	134.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.6%

TOR -6.3%

MIA +12.2%

TOR -1.2%

MIA +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.1	16.4	15.6	107.6	95.6	104.4
season	15.8	16.1		103.1	102.2
opponent	15.0	16.3		105.6	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.4	15.8	14.6	15.1
TOR	18.3	16.6	15.5	15.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.01	15	-3	18	14.9	15.5	-0.53	16.7	15.2	1.54
Ike Austin	51	51	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	3	6	15.1	15.0	0.01	15.6	17.4	-1.82
Sasha Danilovic	52	53	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	5	2	15.2	14.8	0.41	15.2	18.1	-2.88
Voshon Lenard	60	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.13	17	-5	22	14.8	15.6	-0.78	17.5	14.5	2.93
Alonzo Mourning	58	59	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.09	8	4	4	15.8	13.8	1.95	18.2	13.2	4.90
P.J. Brown	70	66	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	6	0	14.9	15.4	-0.47	16.3	16.7	-0.35
Keith Askins	49	48	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.11	4	8	-4	15.1	15.0	0.15	16.7	16.1	0.55
Willie Anderson	18	18	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	13	-14	17.2	14.5	2.63	17.3	16.2	1.13
John Crotty	19	19	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.14	-3	15	-18	15.5	14.9	0.53	15.2	16.7	-1.54
Mark Strickland	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	13	-14	8.2	15.4	-7.25	8.4	16.9	-8.50
Martin Muursepp	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	13	-14	8.2	15.4	-7.25	8.4	16.9	-8.50

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Acie Earl	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-13	14	16.3	16.4	-0.14	18.4	14.6	3.75
Clifford Rozier	21	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-9	6	15.6	16.7	-1.05	14.6	15.2	-0.55
John Long	14	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	-5	-2	15.9	16.5	-0.59	16.6	14.8	1.85
Damon Stoudamire	88	89	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-6	0	16.7	8.7	8.03	15.1	13.0	2.12
Doug Christie	73	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	16.5	15.9	0.60	14.9	15.7	-0.79
Marcus Camby	82	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	16.6	15.0	1.59	14.5	19.8	-5.32
Walt Williams	91	92	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	16.4	0.0	16.43	15.1	0.0	15.05
Popeye Jones	76	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.16	-13	1	-14	16.2	17.7	-1.56	15.1	14.7	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.05,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 108, TOR 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
CHH 103, MIL 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
UTA 110, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.4,0.33,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%