NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	7.7 [294]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +29.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	1.4 [526]		LVP	Ike Austin (MIA): -29.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.29	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.07,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.29	0.12	0.15	-0.02	24	68%	0.38	4	-0.09	5	80%	0.03
Keith Askins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.05	12	46%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.06
Mark Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
P.J. Brown	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.08	0.01	11	60%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	100%	0.08
James Scott	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Ike Austin	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.3	-0.18	-0.14	-0.02	17	32%	-0.28	1	-0.02	10	40%	-0.16

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.04	0.17	-0.01	8	62%	0.22	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.05	0.04	11	73%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	15	59%	0.17	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	21	62%	0.12	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	67%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	22%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	8	50%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.29	-0.29	-0.03	-0.25	0.01	4	50%	-0.14	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	25.8	15.0	26.3	2.4	36.2	130.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -14.2%

MIA +6.9%

MIA +26.5%

MIA +27.2%

MIA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.9	16.6	15.6	108.0	105.6	104.4
season	15.8	16.0		103.1	103.9
opponent	15.5	16.3		106.0	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	18.6	15.7	16.0	15.9
MIL	15.0	16.4	17.0	18.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	73	75	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.41	15	-14	29	15.3	18.8	-3.47	17.7	10.9	6.75
Voshon Lenard	76	77	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.38	6	-5	11	15.0	21.7	-6.65	16.9	14.7	2.16
Ike Austin	75	75	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.42	3	-2	5	15.3	19.6	-4.34	16.8	15.6	1.24
Tim Hardaway	88	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.9	0.0	15.92	16.6	0.0	16.62
Keith Askins	88	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.9	0.0	15.92	16.6	0.0	16.62
James Scott	12	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.09	-5	6	-11	21.7	15.0	6.65	14.7	16.9	-2.16
Mark Strickland	28	28	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	0.11	-16	17	-33	19.2	14.4	4.78	13.2	18.2	-4.91

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Brown	13	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-4	7	16.2	16.7	-0.54	15.4	16.0	-0.64
Elliot Perry	46	47	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.24	7	-8	15	17.2	16.0	1.15	16.7	15.0	1.63
Ray Allen	52	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.29	3	-4	7	16.7	16.4	0.32	16.1	15.6	0.52
Armen Gilliam	26	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	3	-7	15.7	17.0	-1.31	14.9	16.3	-1.40
Johnny Newman	52	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.35	3	-4	7	17.1	16.0	1.06	16.2	15.5	0.66
Andrew Lang	66	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.38	2	-3	5	16.7	16.3	0.48	16.3	15.0	1.31
Vin Baker	73	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.26	-6	5	-11	16.9	15.2	1.67	16.3	14.1	2.11
Sherman Douglas	43	41	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.23	-8	7	-15	16.0	17.2	-1.15	15.0	16.7	-1.63
Glenn Robinson	74	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.40	-5	4	-9	16.2	18.6	-2.38	15.4	18.9	-3.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.07,0.09,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 67, MIA 65	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.29,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.15,0	92.8%
SEA 88, GSW 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.19,0.17,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.27,0	92.7%
MEM 97, ATL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.54,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.16,0	92.5%