NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	7.8 [264]		MVP	David Wesley (BOS): +10.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	109		Comeback	2.4 [660]		LVP	Elden Campbell (LAL): -14.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	13	61%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Greg Minor	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	7	82%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Marty Conlon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	-0.06	0.06	-0.02	13	55%	0.13	4	-0.10	5	60%	-0.04
Alton Lister	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Todd Day	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	13	47%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Eric Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	13	53%	0.00	5	-0.13	6	50%	-0.05
Dino Radja	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	10	41%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Byron Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.01	6	67%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	5	76%	0.12	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	8	65%	0.05	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	13	53%	0.02	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.04
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	12	39%	-0.05	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	19	49%	-0.04	2	-0.05	13	38%	-0.16
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	0.00	10	47%	-0.06	3	-0.09	10	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.8	28.0	15.0	28.0	2.0	32.3	134.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +9.0%

LAL +7.2%

LAL +25.7%

LAL +0.9%

LAL +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	LAL	NBA	BOS	LAL	NBA
this game	14.2	14.9	15.6	102.0	111.2	104.4
season	14.8	15.3		101.8	105.8
opponent	15.7	14.7		101.5	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.2	15.4	15.1	13.9	14.2
LAL	17.8	11.7	14.3	16.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alton Lister	25	25	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.00	4	-11	15	13.7	14.3	-0.63	15.0	14.9	0.18
Greg Minor	67	65	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-11	15	13.7	15.2	-1.48	14.7	15.3	-0.55
Marty Conlon	17	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-5	3	14.2	14.2	0.05	12.0	15.4	-3.39
Eric Williams	57	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-9	11	14.4	13.9	0.50	15.8	13.6	2.19
Todd Day	39	39	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	5	-17	13.9	14.4	-0.48	13.4	15.9	-2.49
Rick Fox	58	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-5	3	14.2	14.1	0.08	16.7	12.4	4.29
David Wesley	98	96	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	14.4	1.5	12.95	15.1	4.0	11.14
Antoine Walker	66	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	2	-11	14.5	13.6	0.96	14.1	16.4	-2.35
Dino Radja	73	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.22	-13	6	-19	14.1	14.4	-0.30	14.7	15.5	-0.79

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	75	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-4	15	15.1	14.4	0.62	14.8	12.1	2.67
Eddie Jones	84	85	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-2	11	14.7	16.2	-1.52	14.5	12.2	2.34
Byron Scott	49	50	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	0	7	15.0	14.8	0.27	13.6	14.8	-1.22
Derek Fisher	34	38	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	-1	9	14.9	14.9	0.05	14.1	14.2	-0.14
Travis Knight	35	34	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	-1	9	15.1	14.8	0.28	14.1	14.2	-0.11
Shaquille O'Neal	79	82	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	10	-13	15.4	13.1	2.30	14.1	14.4	-0.24
Nick Van Exel	64	62	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	8	-9	14.9	14.9	-0.05	14.2	14.1	0.14
Corie Blount	9	9	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	6	-5	15.7	14.8	0.84	11.9	14.4	-2.53
Jerome Kersey	61	63	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.08	-5	12	-17	14.1	16.2	-2.06	13.9	14.7	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.89,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 92, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.96,0.96,0.99,1	93.7%
NYK 93, MIN 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	92.8%
POR 84, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.93,0.98,1,1	92.5%