NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	4.3 [911]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +23.0%
Charlotte Hornets	86		Comeback	1.0 [627]		LVP	Vlade Divac (CHH): -13.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.16	0.05	-0.02	9	95%	0.23	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	11	68%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.01	-0.05	19	57%	0.12	3	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Keith Askins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	13	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martin Muursepp	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0	50%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
James Scott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	11	46%	-0.01	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	9	43%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	19	61%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Zidek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Addison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	5	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	10	40%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	13	58%	0.02	4	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	16	50%	0.03	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	8	26%	-0.12	1	-0.01	7	29%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	24.1	13.7	24.7	1.8	26.6	119.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.4%

CHH -1.6%

MIA +0.4%

MIA +10.9%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHH	NBA	MIA	CHH	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.6	112.2	95.6	104.4
season	15.8	15.7		103.1	108.0
opponent	16.0	16.3		106.5	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	17.0	17.2	15.9	16.1
CHH	16.1	15.7	15.5	16.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	40	41	0.52	-0.01	0.53	-0.10	21	-6	27	15.3	16.8	-1.48	16.1	15.7	0.40
Sasha Danilovic	61	62	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.11	21	-6	27	16.5	15.4	1.13	16.1	15.3	0.83
Tim Hardaway	81	82	0.48	0.03	0.45	-0.02	17	-2	19	16.8	10.7	6.09	16.2	12.4	3.82
Voshon Lenard	60	60	0.41	0.10	0.32	0.00	14	1	13	16.4	15.6	0.77	16.1	15.4	0.73
Ike Austin	59	59	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.02	8	7	1	18.0	12.6	5.34	15.8	16.0	-0.22
Keith Askins	52	52	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	15	-15	15.2	17.5	-2.30	15.6	16.3	-0.71
P.J. Brown	47	50	0.20	0.31	-0.11	-0.04	8	7	1	17.3	14.9	2.37	16.9	14.6	2.26
Kurt Thomas	23	22	0.05	0.46	-0.41	0.08	-1	16	-17	15.7	16.3	-0.54	15.3	16.0	-0.71
Mark Strickland	6	4	0.00	0.51	-0.51	0.09	-3	18	-21	5.7	16.9	-11.23	10.5	16.1	-5.60
Martin Muursepp	6	4	0.00	0.51	-0.51	0.09	-3	18	-21	5.7	16.9	-11.23	10.5	16.1	-5.60
James Scott	15	14	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.12	-7	22	-29	14.1	16.5	-2.41	12.8	16.4	-3.64

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Zidek	4	5	0.00	-0.51	0.51	-0.09	3	-18	21	10.5	16.1	-5.60	4.8	16.8	-12.01
Rafael Addison	4	5	0.00	-0.51	0.51	-0.09	3	-18	21	10.5	16.1	-5.60	4.8	16.8	-12.01
Tony Smith	8	10	-0.00	-0.51	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	14.4	16.0	-1.63	12.9	16.5	-3.65
Anthony Goldwire	16	18	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	-0.06	0	-15	15	16.6	15.7	0.86	15.6	16.3	-0.74
Malik Rose	16	17	-0.07	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-13	11	14.6	16.1	-1.57	16.7	16.0	0.69
Vlade Divac	56	55	-0.19	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	-8	1	15.9	15.8	0.10	15.8	16.7	-0.98
Matt Geiger	39	38	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	0.00	-14	-1	-13	16.0	15.7	0.25	16.5	15.9	0.62
Dell Curry	69	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-4	-7	16.1	15.1	0.99	17.2	13.0	4.22
Anthony Mason	78	78	-0.44	-0.07	-0.37	0.00	-15	0	-15	16.2	13.3	2.91	16.3	14.9	1.42
Muggsy Bogues	74	72	-0.45	-0.06	-0.39	-0.01	-15	0	-15	15.7	16.6	-0.86	16.3	15.6	0.74
Glen Rice	86	85	-0.51	0.00	-0.51	0.02	-18	3	-21	16.1	10.5	5.60	16.8	4.8	12.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.21,0.29,0.24,0.14,0.17,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 109, BOS 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
ORL 78, DAL 66	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.32,0.29,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
POR 100, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.38,0.22,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0	95.5%