NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	94		Excitement	8.4 [183]		MVP	Karl Malone (UTA): +26.4%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	65.7 [12]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -38.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.26	0.03	0.21	-0.02	23	57%	0.29	1	-0.02	15	73%	-0.01
Antoine Carr	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.00	5	73%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.01
Adam Keefe	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	62%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Howard Eisley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Greg Foster	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Hornacek	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	12	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.03
Greg Ostertag	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.3,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	9	55%	0.00	5	-0.17	4	75%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	6	-0.18	6	100%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	8	75%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	12	44%	0.01	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	0.01	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.01	8	28%	-0.09	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	14	35%	-0.09	2	-0.10	9	56%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.38,-0.38,-0.39	-0.39	-0.12	-0.29	-0.03	23	44%	-0.26	3	-0.13	9	56%	-0.23

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	2.5	28.3	16.7	25.7	2.0	32.0	1.6	17.0	150.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	1.6	17.8	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +34.9%

UTA +17.8%

UTA +2.2%

MIA -4.4%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	16.1	15.6	92.2	83.7	104.4
season	15.6	15.8		110.8	103.1
opponent	16.3	16.0		98.3	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
UTA	15.5	14.0	16.1	14.2	13.5	14.8
MIA	14.5	16.6	16.6	16.4	16.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	82	85	0.80	-0.31	1.11	0.21	20	-13	33	15.1	13.3	1.80	16.9	12.2	4.78
Bryon Russell	69	71	0.78	-0.29	1.07	0.46	11	-4	15	14.6	15.3	-0.75	15.9	16.3	-0.39
John Stockton	84	86	0.68	-0.19	0.87	0.21	16	-9	25	14.8	14.8	-0.05	16.7	13.2	3.51
Jeff Hornacek	76	79	0.66	-0.17	0.83	0.46	7	0	7	14.6	15.4	-0.79	15.8	16.9	-1.12
Antoine Carr	37	37	0.53	-0.04	0.57	0.59	-2	9	-11	14.1	15.2	-1.08	14.0	17.2	-3.17
Greg Ostertag	29	29	-0.02	0.51	-0.54	-0.28	9	-2	11	14.5	14.9	-0.44	18.3	15.2	3.16
Adam Keefe	24	26	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	8	-9	14.7	14.8	-0.17	15.7	16.2	-0.45
Shandon Anderson	33	33	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.15	-1	8	-9	14.1	15.1	-1.04	16.3	16.0	0.30
Howard Eisley	18	18	-0.19	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	16	-25	14.8	14.8	0.05	13.2	16.7	-3.51
Greg Foster	30	29	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.10	-10	17	-27	16.0	14.3	1.76	14.6	16.6	-2.05
Chris Morris	28	27	-0.34	0.83	-1.17	-0.19	-5	12	-17	15.7	14.4	1.32	16.4	15.9	0.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Austin	43	42	0.45	-0.94	1.39	0.21	8	-15	23	16.5	15.8	0.76	16.6	13.5	3.02
Gary Grant	20	20	0.20	-0.69	0.89	0.17	1	-8	9	17.9	15.6	2.27	14.7	14.8	-0.05
Voshon Lenard	38	39	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.17	-1	-6	5	16.7	15.7	1.06	14.3	15.1	-0.79
Kurt Thomas	31	29	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.16	-2	-5	3	15.0	16.5	-1.47	12.7	15.6	-2.99
Sasha Danilovic	88	86	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-6	5	15.7	18.1	-2.36	14.6	15.7	-1.06
Alonzo Mourning	58	58	-0.62	0.13	-0.75	-0.48	-5	-2	-3	16.7	15.3	1.41	15.3	14.2	1.12
Tim Hardaway	88	86	-0.70	0.21	-0.91	-0.41	-10	3	-13	16.0	16.7	-0.73	14.6	15.7	-1.13
Dan Majerle	81	79	-0.84	0.35	-1.19	-0.58	-9	2	-11	15.5	18.1	-2.65	14.7	15.2	-0.49
P.J. Brown	73	71	-0.98	0.48	-1.46	-0.51	-16	9	-25	16.1	15.9	0.19	15.0	14.2	0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.72,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.54,0.24,0.11,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.46,0.32,0.45,0.43,0.26,0	89.8%
DAL 108, SAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.68,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.46,0.54,0.37,0.32,0.28,0	89.5%
SEA 109, LAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.52,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.94,1,0.54,0.25,0.16,0.02,0,0	89.5%