NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	108		Excitement	10.6 [47]		MVP	Tyson Chandler (DAL): +30.9%
Sacramento Kings	104		Comeback	59.6 [32]		LVP	Darren Collison (SAC): -28.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyson Chandler	0.31	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.11	0.21	0.01	8	73%	0.31	0	0.00	6	67%	0.06
Rajon Rondo	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,0.2,0.2	0.04	0.16	0.01	16	60%	0.30	3	-0.10	3	0%	-0.08
Greg Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	13	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Monta Ellis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.03	0.07	-0.08	0.02	23	55%	0.07	2	-0.11	5	80%	0.04
Devin Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	9	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	23%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	-0.23	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.10	-0.13	0.01	16	41%	-0.10	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	-0.04	3	60%	0.03	1	0.03	4	50%	-0.08
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.05	0.00	10	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	12	43%	-0.03	1	-0.09	4	50%	-0.07
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	40%	-0.04	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Ray McCallum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	8	37%	-0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.03	-0.18	0.01	21	62%	0.21	9	-0.44	10	100%	0.08
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.12,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.29	-0.29	-0.10	-0.18	0.01	20	37%	-0.18	3	-0.10	8	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.4	2.7	26.2	16.4	26.5	2.3	35.5	2.4	19.5	154.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +26.8%

DAL +7.2%

SAC -29.4%

DAL +41.5%

DAL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.3	14.7	15.1	97.3	96.3	104.2
season	14.6	14.9		107.6	103.7
opponent	14.8	15.0		107.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	14.3	14.8	13.6	14.4	14.5	14.3
SAC	14.5	12.4	15.8	16.3	15.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chandler Parsons	77	74	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.43	17	-13	30	14.0	14.9	-0.92	15.1	14.0	1.12
Dirk Nowitzki	79	77	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.22	19	-15	34	14.1	14.7	-0.58	15.5	13.0	2.49
Monta Ellis	84	81	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.47	9	-5	14	14.2	14.8	-0.62	15.0	13.9	1.09
Tyson Chandler	92	91	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.20	18	-14	32	14.0	15.7	-1.73	14.7	15.1	-0.38
Rajon Rondo	80	80	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.20	17	-13	30	14.0	15.2	-1.19	15.3	13.0	2.35
Al-Farouq Aminu	9	10	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.08	3	1	2	14.2	14.3	-0.09	15.8	14.6	1.17
Greg Smith	12	11	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.14	-7	11	-18	16.0	14.1	1.90	15.6	14.6	1.00
Jose Juan Barea	33	32	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.11	-5	9	-14	14.7	14.1	0.56	14.0	15.0	-1.01
Charlie Villanueva	14	11	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.01	-11	15	-26	14.3	14.3	-0.02	13.5	14.9	-1.33
Richard Jefferson	29	29	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.24	-19	23	-42	14.9	14.1	0.80	12.9	15.4	-2.57
Devin Harris	46	44	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	0.19	-21	25	-46	15.4	13.5	1.93	13.0	15.9	-2.94

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nik Stauskas	40	40	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.03	7	-11	18	12.8	15.9	-3.12	14.4	14.3	0.11
DeMarcus Cousins	85	85	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-8	12	14.5	15.7	-1.27	14.2	14.7	-0.45
Rudy Gay	21	22	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-5	6	14.6	14.8	-0.15	14.2	14.3	-0.10
Ray McCallum	50	51	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.26	8	-12	20	13.6	15.7	-2.05	15.8	13.1	2.70
Ben McLemore	79	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	6	-16	15.8	11.7	4.12	13.8	15.7	-1.90
Jason Thompson	38	43	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	3	-10	15.0	14.6	0.44	14.9	13.9	0.98
Carl Landry	60	63	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.30	-10	6	-16	15.8	13.4	2.46	14.3	14.3	-0.05
Darren Collison	93	96	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.38	-7	3	-10	14.7	15.3	-0.61	14.1	15.8	-1.73
Derrick Williams	74	75	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.52	-6	2	-8	14.8	14.6	0.14	14.0	15.0	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.68,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.46,0.54,0.37,0.32,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.46,0.32,0.45,0.43,0.26,0	91.1%
PHI 118, ORL 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.52,0.74,0.68,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.83,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.33,0.08,0	90.1%
DET 97, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.73,0.46,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.27,0	90.0%