NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	5.3 [726]		MVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): +74.6%
Utah Jazz	107		Comeback	165.7 [5]		LVP	Mark Jackson (DEN): -20.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Stith	0.75	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.45,0.75,0.75	0.23	0.51	-0.01	14	91%	0.75	2	-0.01	6	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.08	-0.02	0.07	4	90%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dale Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.06	-0.04	15	60%	-0.01	4	-0.04	12	75%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	13	54%	-0.04	5	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.21	-0.11	-0.15	-0.05	3	67%	-0.04	6	-0.17	3	67%	-0.08

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.55	0.55	0.07	0.47	-0.01	20	62%	0.55	2	-0.01	7	100%	0.05
Chris Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.12	0.00	5	92%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	25	54%	0.05	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.01
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.02	7	59%	0.08	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Adam Keefe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	5	45%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.08,0.08,-0.03	-0.03	-0.12	0.02	-0.07	12	32%	-0.02	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.04
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	0.04	2	83%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Antoine Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	6	21%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	23.4	14.7	34.1	1.8	33.5	132.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +2.3%

UTA +10.4%

UTA +20.3%

UTA +13.2%

UTA +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.5	15.6	109.6	112.6	104.4
season	15.2	15.6		102.3	110.8
opponent	16.0	15.3		102.2	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	13.7	13.5	20.2	15.0
UTA	16.6	15.8	13.2	16.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brooks Thompson	16	16	0.09	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-8	12	13.9	15.2	-1.36	15.7	15.4	0.26
Ervin Johnson	40	40	0.06	-0.55	0.61	-0.00	2	-6	8	15.4	14.7	0.74	17.6	13.9	3.67
Darvin Ham	6	7	-0.19	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-7	10	18.8	14.7	4.09	20.4	15.1	5.35
Jeff McInnis	27	27	-0.27	-0.22	-0.05	-0.30	1	-5	6	17.0	14.2	2.75	14.6	15.8	-1.23
Mark Jackson	67	68	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	-0.37	3	-7	10	14.3	16.8	-2.49	14.9	16.9	-1.98
Antonio McDyess	77	76	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-3	2	13.9	19.8	-5.82	14.9	17.9	-3.09
Tom Hammonds	66	67	-0.50	0.01	-0.51	-0.30	-7	3	-10	15.7	13.2	2.49	15.7	15.0	0.62
Dale Ellis	90	91	-0.52	0.03	-0.54	-0.20	-11	7	-18	15.1	12.2	2.87	15.2	21.7	-6.55
Bryant Stith	81	83	-0.56	0.07	-0.63	-0.15	-14	10	-24	14.9	15.5	-0.54	15.5	15.6	-0.13

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Hornacek	73	73	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.39	10	-6	16	14.3	19.2	-4.88	14.4	17.2	-2.88
Karl Malone	88	87	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.32	9	-5	14	15.3	17.7	-2.42	15.2	12.6	2.62
John Stockton	79	77	0.52	-0.03	0.55	0.46	2	2	0	15.5	15.4	0.04	14.8	15.9	-1.15
Greg Ostertag	60	60	0.43	0.06	0.37	-0.01	15	-11	26	15.9	14.7	1.25	14.7	15.5	-0.78
Chris Morris	24	25	0.31	0.18	0.13	0.31	0	4	-4	19.2	14.2	5.05	18.6	13.7	4.96
Bryon Russell	70	69	0.21	0.28	-0.07	0.03	6	-2	8	14.3	18.8	-4.51	13.7	18.6	-4.96
Antoine Carr	21	21	0.10	0.39	-0.29	0.34	-8	12	-20	15.6	15.4	0.13	16.5	14.6	1.90
Howard Eisley	7	8	0.04	0.45	-0.40	-0.10	5	-1	6	15.4	15.5	-0.05	14.4	15.1	-0.68
Adam Keefe	8	8	-0.07	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	6	-8	16.5	15.4	1.12	19.4	14.6	4.78
Greg Foster	11	11	-0.10	0.59	-0.69	0.08	-6	10	-16	16.2	15.4	0.80	9.9	15.7	-5.77
Shandon Anderson	34	31	-0.27	0.76	-1.03	0.06	-11	15	-26	16.8	14.7	2.06	16.9	14.1	2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 98, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.39,0.25,0.36,0.15,0.17,1	89.7%
BOS 93, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.38,0.54,0.84,0.92,1	89.0%
CHA 100, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.33,0.25,0.54,0.76,0.82,1	88.8%