NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	6.8 [505]		MVP	Al Horford (BOS): +24.9%
Boston Celtics	99		Comeback	69.9 [14]		LVP	Kyrie Irving (BOS): -28.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.01	0.05	5	85%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Nene	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	56%	0.04	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
PJ Tucker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	2	50%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Tarik Black	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	2	37%	0.00	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01
Briante Weber	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	0.04	-0.06	0.03	23	49%	-0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
James Harden	-0.23	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.23,0.17,-0.23	-0.11	-0.24	-0.12	27	49%	0.17	8	-0.39	15	100%	0.12

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.12,-0.12,0.25	0.25	-0.08	0.29	-0.04	10	41%	0.39	3	-0.14	2	0%	-0.09
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.11	-0.01	8	76%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.04	0.05	11	58%	0.08	0	0.00	11	82%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Abdel Nader	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	14	46%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Bird	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	11	42%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	0.03	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.28	-0.28	-0.01	-0.22	0.06	18	59%	-0.06	6	-0.23	8	87%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.4	26.5	15.8	30.1	2.7	39.1	143.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +63.9%

HOU -27.0%

BOS +7.1%

BOS +5.3%

BOS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	BOS	NBA	HOU	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	14.3	14.7	98.0	99.0	107.5
season	14.6	15.1		112.8	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.8		103.5	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.7	14.6	15.9	15.1	14.5
BOS	14.0	14.2	14.8	14.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	79	78	0.37	-0.87	1.23	0.19	6	-7	13	15.6	10.6	4.99	15.4	10.5	4.86
Briante Weber	31	31	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.14	0	-1	1	15.2	14.2	1.04	14.4	14.3	0.09
Nene	39	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-4	7	15.1	14.2	0.89	14.4	14.2	0.27
Gerald Green	20	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.05	-6	5	-11	14.9	14.4	0.49	15.3	14.0	1.26
Eric Gordon	84	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.51	1	-2	3	14.6	14.2	0.38	14.5	13.2	1.34
PJ Tucker	53	53	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.34	-5	4	-9	14.3	14.8	-0.52	13.7	14.9	-1.18
Trevor Ariza	82	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.57	2	-3	5	14.5	14.5	0.01	14.2	14.6	-0.39
James Harden	83	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.52	0	-1	1	14.1	16.6	-2.50	13.8	16.5	-2.63
Tarik Black	29	29	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.68	-6	5	-11	11.4	15.8	-4.41	12.2	15.1	-2.93

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Rozier	41	41	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.60	5	-4	9	14.9	13.9	1.00	14.4	14.6	-0.20
Kyrie Irving	81	82	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.43	7	-6	13	13.7	16.6	-2.89	14.0	17.1	-3.10
Jayson Tatum	83	84	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.42	6	-5	11	14.0	15.7	-1.71	14.7	13.3	1.43
Marcus Smart	74	74	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.49	3	-2	5	13.6	16.3	-2.67	14.2	15.5	-1.29
Al Horford	71	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.66	-5	6	-11	14.2	14.6	-0.42	14.1	15.5	-1.42
Jabari Bird	2	2	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	4	-7	18.0	14.2	3.79	13.0	14.5	-1.54
Aron Baynes	24	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.15	3	-2	5	15.4	13.9	1.48	16.4	13.9	2.45
Marcus Morris	39	37	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.14	2	-1	3	15.6	13.4	2.17	15.5	13.9	1.64
Abdel Nader	44	45	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.07	-2	3	-5	14.2	14.4	-0.23	13.8	15.1	-1.33
Shane Larkin	29	28	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.07	-2	3	-5	15.4	13.8	1.63	17.0	13.6	3.41
Daniel Theis	12	12	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.11	-9	10	-19	13.5	14.4	-0.90	12.0	14.9	-2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.39,0.25,0.36,0.15,0.17,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 110, MEM 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.41,1	89.8%
DEN 103, UTA 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.42,1	89.7%
WAS 117, GSW 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.22,0.28,1	89.5%