NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	76		Excitement	7.6 [310]		MVP	Derek Strong (ORL): +13.6%
Indiana Pacers	73		Comeback	10.4 [69]		LVP	Derrick McKey (IND): -53.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Strong	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	5	75%	0.14	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Gerald Wilkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	85%	0.11	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	86%	0.13	5	-0.17	2	100%	0.02
David Vaughn	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	12	42%	-0.01	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	6	50%	-0.03	6	-0.13	4	75%	0.02
Horace Grant	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.13	0.02	11	46%	-0.07	3	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02
Nick Anderson	-0.29	0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.29	-0.04	-0.25	0.00	8	61%	-0.06	4	-0.23	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.04	0.03	15	69%	0.08	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.05
Jerome Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Vincent Askew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	5	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Duane Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	44%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	7	25%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	4	60%	0.01	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.14	-0.01	7	29%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.54	-0.54	-0.09	-0.46	-0.01	10	41%	-0.31	3	-0.23	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.7	28.2	16.3	27.7	2.4	36.6	136.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +50.2%

IND -0.2%

ORL +24.2%

IND -21.7%

IND -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	17.9	15.0	15.6	87.4	83.0	104.4
season	16.4	15.3		102.9	103.6
opponent	16.3	15.5		101.9	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.2	20.6	16.4	17.7	17.9
IND	14.1	13.1	16.4	16.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rony Seikaly	67	68	0.80	-0.31	1.11	0.42	13	-10	23	18.4	16.5	1.86	15.6	13.0	2.59
Brian Shaw	55	56	0.58	-0.09	0.67	0.47	4	-1	5	17.1	19.3	-2.19	15.2	14.6	0.64
Horace Grant	70	71	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-2	7	17.5	19.8	-2.35	14.5	17.2	-2.77
Nick Anderson	62	63	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.50	2	1	1	17.0	20.2	-3.24	14.7	15.7	-1.01
Derek Strong	40	40	0.31	0.18	0.13	0.28	1	2	-1	19.5	16.6	2.86	16.5	13.7	2.75
Gerald Wilkins	51	52	0.15	0.34	-0.19	0.15	0	3	-3	17.0	19.3	-2.34	14.3	16.0	-1.65
Dennis Scott	23	24	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.00	-1	4	-5	20.3	17.1	3.23	12.8	15.8	-3.04
Darrell Armstrong	41	40	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.07	-3	6	-9	19.0	16.9	2.11	15.4	14.6	0.82
David Vaughn	26	26	-0.33	0.82	-1.16	-0.15	-6	9	-15	17.7	18.0	-0.40	15.5	14.8	0.71

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Best	54	52	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.09	4	-7	11	14.4	16.0	-1.68	17.9	17.9	-0.02
Erick Dampier	29	29	0.06	-0.55	0.61	0.03	1	-4	5	15.9	14.6	1.29	16.3	18.7	-2.38
Duane Ferrell	24	25	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-3	3	15.0	15.0	0.06	19.3	17.4	1.89
Jerome Allen	19	20	-0.19	-0.30	0.12	-0.07	-4	1	-5	14.9	15.0	-0.07	18.2	17.9	0.35
Dale Davis	50	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	0	-3	14.5	15.6	-1.07	16.8	19.4	-2.59
Antonio Davis	47	47	-0.25	-0.24	-0.00	-0.28	1	-4	5	14.8	15.3	-0.50	18.5	17.2	1.31
Jalen Rose	34	34	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	0	-3	17.0	13.8	3.21	19.1	17.2	1.85
Derrick McKey	73	70	-0.52	0.03	-0.55	-0.44	-3	0	-3	15.0	14.8	0.24	17.7	19.1	-1.40
Vincent Askew	42	43	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	0	-3	14.9	15.1	-0.14	19.3	16.6	2.67
Reggie Miller	68	67	-0.59	0.10	-0.69	-0.45	-5	2	-7	14.7	16.1	-1.49	17.3	20.0	-2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.46,0.64,0.55,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 101, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.83,0.81,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.72,0.62,0.55,0.33,0.27,0	91.7%
MEM 98, SEA 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.42,0	91.6%
POR 105, DEN 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.62,0.54,0.43,0.42,0	91.6%