NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	92		Excitement	2.6 [1184]		MVP	Terry Mills (DET): +6.8%
Washington Bullets	79		Comeback	1.2 [548]		LVP	Calbert Cheaney (WAS): -11.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.04	14	68%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	60%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.00	-0.06	15	59%	0.07	3	-0.02	11	82%	0.01
Joe Dumars	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	10	59%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Long	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.00	-0.07	11	46%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kenny Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	30%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	1	100%	0.02	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	7	33%	-0.02	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	0.00	0.08	8	81%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	6	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	0.03	19	45%	-0.06	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.03	12	54%	-0.02	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Gheorghe Muresan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	0.00	-0.05	7	24%	-0.06	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.00	0.00	9	28%	-0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.3	23.3	15.6	26.2	1.8	23.2	117.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +48.9%

DET +3.0%

WAS -4.8%

DET +2.7%

DET +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	17.4	15.0	15.6	104.5	87.8	104.4
season	17.1	14.8		107.6	104.3
opponent	15.8	16.2		103.3	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.5	15.0	17.7	21.5	17.4
WAS	16.4	16.3	15.0	12.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	49	51	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	-5	23	18.2	16.3	1.94	15.3	14.7	0.58
Joe Dumars	70	74	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	2	9	16.7	19.9	-3.17	14.8	16.1	-1.34
Grant Long	77	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	7	-1	18.1	12.2	5.92	15.3	13.3	2.00
Grant Hill	65	66	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.05	14	-1	15	17.1	18.0	-0.86	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Otis Thorpe	48	48	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.04	13	0	13	16.6	18.2	-1.58	16.1	13.7	2.41
Terry Mills	64	67	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	11	-9	17.4	17.2	0.21	14.1	17.7	-3.65
Stacey Augmon	26	24	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	7	-1	15.8	18.0	-2.21	18.2	13.9	4.29
Don Reid	10	10	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	8	-3	12.4	18.0	-5.60	17.2	14.7	2.45
Kenny Smith	31	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.29	-10	23	-33	20.0	15.9	4.07	11.8	16.9	-5.01

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gheorghe Muresan	49	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-10	7	15.5	14.4	1.07	15.3	19.9	-4.55
Jaren Jackson	44	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-10	7	14.2	15.8	-1.60	17.7	17.0	0.72
Rod Strickland	58	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.30	2	-15	17	14.7	15.7	-0.98	18.3	15.5	2.83
Harvey Grant	32	31	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-11	9	14.3	15.4	-1.15	21.5	15.1	6.41
Chris Whitney	32	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.18	-15	2	-17	15.7	14.7	0.98	15.5	18.3	-2.83
Tracy Murray	32	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.19	-16	3	-19	15.2	14.9	0.30	14.9	18.7	-3.85
Calbert Cheaney	46	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	-3	-7	15.8	14.2	1.60	17.0	17.7	-0.72
Juwan Howard	80	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-5	-3	14.9	15.6	-0.65	17.6	15.3	2.33
Chris Webber	77	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	-3	-7	15.0	15.1	-0.06	17.7	15.3	2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
HOU 113, NOP 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
BOS 109, DET 89	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%