NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	4.6 [859]		MVP	Ricky Pierce (DEN): +4.5%
San Antonio Spurs	79		Comeback	1.3 [500]		LVP	Dominique Wilkins (SAS): -25.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Pierce	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	7	68%	0.07	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.00
Sarunas Marciulionis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Eric Murdock	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	16	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	17	35%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.18	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	-0.02	8	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.08	2	150%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	13	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	7	62%	0.03	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	10	57%	0.00	3	-0.06	10	90%	0.03
Carl Herrera	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.02	8	12%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.02	-0.00	9	20%	-0.13	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.26	-0.02	-0.02	13	25%	-0.20	2	-0.05	14	57%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	1.6	29.0	14.8	26.3	1.6	30.0	133.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.2%

SAS -3.4%

DEN +4.5%

DEN +5.5%

DEN +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	15.5	15.6	92.6	83.2	104.4
season	15.2	16.8		102.3	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.3		109.4	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	14.7	15.1	16.0	14.8
SAS	15.9	16.5	13.7	16.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Ellis	49	49	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.10	12	-3	15	14.8	14.8	-0.01	16.3	14.6	1.72
Antonio McDyess	73	76	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	0	9	15.2	13.7	1.42	15.5	15.4	0.09
Mark Jackson	60	61	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	2	5	15.7	13.3	2.48	15.6	15.4	0.22
Ervin Johnson	57	56	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	5	-1	15.3	14.1	1.24	15.9	14.8	1.10
Ricky Pierce	41	40	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.17	3	6	-3	15.0	14.6	0.40	15.3	15.7	-0.38
Bryant Stith	62	63	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	4	1	14.5	15.5	-1.06	14.2	18.1	-3.87
Eric Murdock	35	34	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	7	-5	13.3	15.7	-2.48	15.4	15.6	-0.22
Sarunas Marciulionis	17	18	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	3	3	14.6	14.9	-0.21	18.4	14.8	3.57
LaPhonso Ellis	50	47	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	10	-11	15.8	13.8	1.98	16.2	14.8	1.34
Tom Hammonds	27	28	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	9	-9	13.3	15.4	-2.08	14.0	16.1	-2.07
Darvin Ham	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	11	-13	4.2	15.3	-11.04	9.0	15.7	-6.71

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Anderson	43	42	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-16	23	14.3	16.4	-2.09	16.3	13.6	2.71
Carl Herrera	32	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-8	7	14.8	15.8	-1.03	16.1	14.3	1.85
Monty Williams	3	2	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-4	-1	27.7	15.1	12.57	11.0	14.9	-3.90
Avery Johnson	71	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-10	11	15.2	16.3	-1.12	15.6	12.4	3.15
Vinny Del Negro	73	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-11	13	14.7	18.0	-3.26	15.2	13.5	1.73
Cory Alexander	17	17	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	1	-11	18.8	14.8	3.98	11.1	15.6	-4.51
Charles Smith	49	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	1	-11	16.3	14.7	1.63	14.0	15.6	-1.62
Sean Elliott	92	93	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-5	1	15.1	27.7	-12.57	14.9	11.0	3.90
Dominique Wilkins	43	46	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.04	-13	4	-17	16.3	14.8	1.52	13.3	16.3	-2.98
Vernon Maxwell	52	52	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	3	-15	15.8	15.1	0.69	14.6	15.1	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.19,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 111, NOP 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.02,0.03,0.09,0	94.9%
CHH 112, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
BKN 95, BOS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.9%