NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	112		Excitement	4.8 [837]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +31.1%
Miami Heat	122		Comeback	3.0 [479]		LVP	Zaccharie Risacher (ATL): -9.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trae Young	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.02	-0.06	21	64%	0.22	5	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Terance Mann	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.01	8	87%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vit Krejci	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	8	87%	0.16	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dominick Barlow	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Georges Niang	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caris LeVert	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.08	12	61%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Dyson Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.04	12	58%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Zaccharie Risacher	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	5	42%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.25	0.08	0.02	17	88%	0.38	4	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	5	83%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.02	0.03	12	67%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	7	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	69%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	15	50%	0.07	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	9	55%	0.06	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	26.3	14.5	25.4	2.7	28.2	124.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.2	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.5%

MIA +9.4%

MIA +2.1%

MIA +7.9%

MIA +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	12.8	16.6	14.4	114.3	124.5	113.1
season	13.2	15.0		113.0	111.5
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.2	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	10.9	16.0	12.0	12.6	12.8
MIA	16.4	14.0	15.6	21.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Georges Niang	29	29	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.08	6	-16	22	13.3	12.6	0.68	16.1	16.8	-0.74
Dominick Barlow	28	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-8	6	13.2	12.6	0.64	15.5	17.0	-1.53
Caris LeVert	57	57	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.29	6	-16	22	11.8	14.1	-2.28	17.1	15.9	1.27
Terance Mann	55	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-7	4	13.1	12.4	0.71	17.1	16.0	1.18
Vit Krejci	53	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.00	-8	-2	-6	13.7	11.7	1.96	16.3	16.9	-0.58
Dyson Daniels	72	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-9	8	12.2	14.5	-2.37	17.1	15.2	1.90
Onyeka Okongwu	70	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	-2	-6	12.6	13.2	-0.64	17.0	15.5	1.53
Zaccharie Risacher	55	55	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.02	-20	10	-30	13.1	12.4	0.67	15.3	18.3	-3.01
Trae Young	71	72	-0.65	0.14	-0.79	-0.06	-20	10	-30	12.9	12.6	0.23	16.7	16.3	0.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	74	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.01	22	-12	34	16.7	16.2	0.56	13.2	11.4	1.84
Andrew Wiggins	66	66	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-4	18	16.7	16.3	0.41	12.7	13.0	-0.26
Haywood Highsmith	69	70	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	0	10	16.7	16.3	0.40	13.1	12.0	1.11
Davion Mitchell	71	72	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	1	8	16.5	16.7	-0.21	13.2	11.5	1.71
Tyler Herro	78	78	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	6	-2	16.9	15.2	1.69	12.2	15.2	-3.08
Kyle Anderson	33	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	3	4	16.5	16.7	-0.21	15.5	11.4	4.15
Alec Burks	34	33	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.23	-5	15	-20	16.8	16.5	0.26	11.2	13.6	-2.34
Kel'el Ware	48	46	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.24	-7	17	-24	16.2	17.0	-0.75	11.6	13.9	-2.28
Pelle Larsson	17	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	14	-18	14.6	17.0	-2.35	11.8	13.0	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.77,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.82,0.94,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 87, HOU 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.96,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
GSW 100, LAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
MIA 99, DET 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.75,0.86,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.8%