NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	4.6 [908]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +20.2%
Detroit Pistons	109		Comeback	4.2 [85]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIA): -7.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.18	0.02	-0.00	22	73%	0.28	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Norris Cole	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	55%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.10	-0.03	0.08	17	70%	0.07	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	13	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.02	-0.01	10	90%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.04	0.02	16	71%	0.19	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	5	92%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	71%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	11	52%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	58%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	6	46%	0.01	5	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.6	26.4	16.8	28.0	2.8	31.2	131.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +37.5%

DET +1.1%

DET +5.6%

DET +5.9%

MIA -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.6	16.2	15.4	113.8	122.5	104.1
season	15.7	15.7		110.2	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.9		106.6	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	17.8	16.4	15.5	16.6
DET	16.3	11.8	18.7	18.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	15	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-8	6	18.5	16.2	2.38	13.1	16.9	-3.84
Udonis Haslem	37	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.08	-3	-7	4	16.2	16.8	-0.65	17.0	15.6	1.41
Mario Chalmers	51	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.28	2	-12	14	15.9	17.5	-1.65	16.9	15.0	1.92
Mike Miller	44	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-2	-6	16.2	16.9	-0.63	15.0	17.4	-2.41
Norris Cole	35	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.10	-14	4	-18	17.8	15.7	2.02	15.5	16.6	-1.17
LeBron James	78	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-8	6	16.5	17.3	-0.86	16.7	10.9	5.82
Shane Battier	50	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-3	-4	16.8	16.2	0.65	15.6	17.0	-1.41
Ray Allen	53	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-2	-6	16.8	16.2	0.63	16.1	16.3	-0.23
Chris Bosh	72	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	-2	-6	16.2	18.5	-2.38	16.9	13.1	3.84

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	50	48	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.00	21	-11	32	14.8	17.9	-3.03	16.4	16.7	-0.28
Will Bynum	53	51	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.05	17	-7	24	14.7	18.4	-3.68	16.7	16.4	0.34
Austin Daye	56	54	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.05	17	-7	24	14.5	19.0	-4.45	16.9	16.0	0.86
Kyle Singler	58	57	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.01	14	-4	18	15.9	16.7	-0.88	16.8	16.2	0.55
Andre Drummond	44	44	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.03	12	-2	14	15.1	17.2	-2.09	16.8	16.3	0.56
Tayshaun Prince	64	63	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.37	-11	21	-32	17.9	11.8	6.13	16.1	17.7	-1.64
Greg Monroe	51	49	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.23	-6	16	-22	16.6	15.6	0.94	16.8	16.3	0.53
Jason Maxiell	33	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.16	-7	17	-24	19.0	14.5	4.45	16.0	16.9	-0.86
Brandon Knight	36	36	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.15	-7	17	-24	18.4	14.7	3.68	16.4	16.7	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.75,0.86,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 110, CHA 123	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.84,0.93,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%
NJN 86, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.87,0.89,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.8%
POR 89, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	93.6%