NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	112		Excitement	8.7 [185]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (HOU): +53.9%
Detroit Pistons	110		Comeback	7.5 [293]		LVP	Jaden Ivey (DET): -32.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0.54	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.56,0.54	0.11	0.43	0.01	15	61%	0.54	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Alperen Sengun	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	19	64%	0.20	4	-0.13	7	71%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Amen Thompson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.02	15	56%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Jae'Sean Tate	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cam Whitmore	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	21%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Green	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.03	-0.12	-0.00	25	47%	-0.07	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Knox II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.06	0.01	9	90%	0.22	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	14	68%	0.19	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	69%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	12	58%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.02	6	38%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Isaiah Livers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.13,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.08	-0.02	13	57%	0.07	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Marcus Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Ivey	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,-0.09,-0.24,-0.32	-0.32	-0.08	-0.24	0.00	19	43%	-0.04	3	-0.28	4	25%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	0.8	27.2	14.7	30.8	1.8	29.4	129.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -17.0%

HOU +36.2%

DET -10.4%

HOU +37.9%

HOU +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DET	NBA	HOU	DET	NBA
this game	14.7	14.2	14.5	112.0	111.1	113.9
season	14.2	14.2		113.2	108.4
opponent	14.3	14.6		117.6	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.9	13.4	16.2	15.6	14.7
DET	12.8	13.7	15.1	15.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred VanVleet	89	86	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-10	22	14.5	16.3	-1.76	14.5	12.2	2.39
Alperen Sengun	77	76	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.40	10	-8	18	14.5	15.3	-0.83	14.8	12.5	2.28
Jalen Green	80	80	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.21	7	-5	12	14.6	15.2	-0.67	14.8	11.7	3.15
Jabari Smith Jr.	85	84	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.44	-3	5	-8	15.0	13.2	1.78	14.1	15.2	-1.14
Reggie Bullock Jr.	42	42	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	3	-4	16.3	13.6	2.72	14.0	14.4	-0.32
Cam Whitmore	34	33	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	-4	10	13.4	15.4	-2.01	14.0	14.4	-0.39
Jae'Sean Tate	43	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	3	-4	13.5	15.6	-2.18	14.3	14.2	0.04
Jeff Green	27	27	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.08	-3	5	-8	16.2	14.2	2.07	13.1	14.7	-1.59
Amen Thompson	17	17	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.06	-8	10	-18	14.0	14.9	-0.86	12.5	14.6	-2.13
Aaron Holiday	6	7	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	11	-20	18.7	14.5	4.21	10.7	14.5	-3.79

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ausar Thompson	36	39	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.05	5	-7	12	14.3	14.2	0.16	14.2	15.0	-0.79
Marcus Sasser	25	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-5	8	13.1	14.6	-1.54	14.4	14.8	-0.44
Jalen Duren	64	64	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.33	9	-11	20	14.2	14.4	-0.22	15.7	12.9	2.76
Killian Hayes	59	62	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.11	-7	5	-12	14.6	13.7	0.89	14.1	15.7	-1.53
Marvin Bagley III	28	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	0	-2	13.7	14.4	-0.72	13.1	15.3	-2.15
Jaden Ivey	56	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.38	7	-9	16	14.2	14.3	-0.12	16.0	13.0	3.08
Isaiah Livers	35	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	1	-4	14.3	14.2	0.13	13.5	15.4	-1.93
Kevin Knox II	73	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.29	-1	-1	0	14.2	14.2	0.05	15.5	12.9	2.55
Alec Burks	61	62	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.51	-11	9	-20	14.7	13.5	1.15	14.1	15.7	-1.53
Isaiah Stewart	58	61	-0.88	0.38	-1.27	-0.59	-10	8	-18	14.2	14.3	-0.19	14.6	14.9	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.65,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.74,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.43,0.42,0.59,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.78,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.68,0.15,0	89.6%
LAL 106, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.43,0.38,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.84,0.69,0.09,0	89.5%
ATL 91, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.17,0	89.5%