NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	130		Excitement	5.6 [665]		MVP	Trey Lyles (SAC): +16.2%
Sacramento Kings	135		Comeback	1.1 [965]		LVP	Pascal Siakam (TOR): -7.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
RJ Barrett	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.03	8	70%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Chris Boucher	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.04
Jontay Porter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.03	4	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	10	70%	0.08	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.12	-0.05	0.03	11	67%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Jalen McDaniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	15	67%	0.08	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.09,0.05,-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	17	53%	0.05	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Pascal Siakam	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.07	-0.06	0.09	11	62%	0.01	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.02	-0.02	6	100%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.02	11	69%	0.17	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	12	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	16	69%	0.21	6	-0.15	3	67%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.04	20	56%	0.10	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duarte	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.05	6	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	16	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	26.3	14.4	27.5	2.5	41.2	141.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +43.8%

TOR -3.7%

SAC +12.1%

TOR -0.5%

TOR -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	13.2	14.7	14.5	126.2	129.8	113.9
season	14.0	14.0		111.3	115.6
opponent	14.8	14.7		113.6	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.8	13.2	13.0	13.7	13.2
SAC	14.9	12.5	15.8	15.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	48	50	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.23	12	-17	29	13.1	13.2	-0.11	14.9	14.4	0.51
Dennis Schroder	68	68	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.46	12	-17	29	12.6	14.2	-1.57	15.3	13.5	1.81
Jalen McDaniels	17	16	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	0	-5	11.6	13.5	-1.89	15.4	14.5	0.93
Jontay Porter	26	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	0	-5	14.3	12.8	1.58	15.9	14.2	1.72
Pascal Siakam	81	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.40	5	-10	15	13.0	13.6	-0.60	14.2	16.5	-2.34
Chris Boucher	60	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-6	7	13.1	13.3	-0.20	14.8	14.4	0.45
Immanuel Quickley	79	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-2	-1	13.6	11.6	2.01	14.3	16.0	-1.63
RJ Barrett	59	60	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.06	-19	14	-33	13.2	13.2	-0.03	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Scottie Barnes	77	75	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.11	-23	18	-41	13.4	12.6	0.74	14.3	15.7	-1.44

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Monk	67	68	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.20	10	-5	15	14.9	14.3	0.55	13.0	13.5	-0.49
Domantas Sabonis	82	81	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.14	12	-7	19	14.7	14.4	0.31	13.4	12.2	1.19
Harrison Barnes	73	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	3	-1	13.9	16.4	-2.47	13.4	12.7	0.65
De'Aaron Fox	84	82	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.38	-1	6	-7	14.3	16.3	-2.04	13.3	12.8	0.45
Keegan Murray	76	74	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.35	-3	8	-11	14.3	15.6	-1.35	13.1	13.2	-0.11
Chris Duarte	37	36	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	3	-1	13.9	15.0	-1.10	13.4	13.1	0.30
Kevin Huerter	30	30	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	2	1	16.0	14.1	1.85	13.2	13.2	0.05
Davion Mitchell	20	21	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	-1	7	16.3	14.3	2.04	12.8	13.3	-0.45
Trey Lyles	34	33	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.08	1	4	-3	15.8	14.1	1.69	12.7	13.4	-0.69
JaVale McGee	17	18	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.14	-7	12	-19	15.3	14.5	0.77	12.4	13.3	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.61,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 107, OKC 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.87,0.84,0.78,0.98,1	95.0%
CHH 105, NYK 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.84,0.95,0.74,1	94.4%
POR 109, DEN 118	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.99,1,1	94.2%