NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	9.3 [125]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (DEN): +25.7%
Detroit Pistons	103		Comeback	2.7 [629]		LVP	Isaiah Livers (DET): -24.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.26	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.26	0.12	0.17	0.03	15	64%	0.26	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,0.19,0.13	-0.03	0.15	-0.01	11	42%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.05
Zeke Nnaji	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	3	78%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.06	0.08	-0.05	15	45%	0.18	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.02
Christian Braun	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	10	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Jalen Pickett	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.10	0.01	17	56%	0.08	3	-0.18	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.15,0.25,0.2	0.20	0.03	0.16	-0.01	17	60%	0.37	5	-0.17	11	100%	0.16
Stanley Umude	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.11	-0.01	8	69%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	13	58%	0.11	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Jaden Ivey	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.01	8	94%	0.23	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.03
Marcus Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.07	-0.00	8	61%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	5	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.02
James Wiseman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	10	40%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Livers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24	-0.24	-0.08	-0.16	0.00	7	33%	-0.07	2	-0.17	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	28.6	13.8	26.3	2.4	35.3	135.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.8%

DET -12.0%

DET -4.0%

DEN +24.6%

DET -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DET	NBA	DEN	DET	NBA
this game	14.5	14.6	14.5	108.1	104.0	113.9
season	15.0	14.2		116.8	108.4
opponent	14.3	14.6		117.6	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	15.2	14.8	14.3	14.5
DET	16.2	14.8	13.4	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	68	66	0.98	-0.48	1.45	0.36	21	-17	38	13.8	16.0	-2.16	14.2	15.2	-1.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.47	3	1	2	15.0	13.2	1.76	14.6	14.5	0.15
Reggie Jackson	67	68	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.47	3	1	2	14.2	15.2	-1.04	14.3	15.1	-0.81
Aaron Gordon	74	76	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.46	-2	6	-8	15.3	12.2	3.10	14.6	14.6	-0.04
Michael Porter Jr.	77	78	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	5	-6	15.4	11.4	4.05	14.5	15.0	-0.48
Peyton Watson	30	28	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	-1	6	12.5	15.4	-2.84	14.7	14.5	0.24
Zeke Nnaji	30	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.09	2	2	0	13.6	14.9	-1.31	14.3	14.7	-0.33
Jalen Pickett	16	16	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.07	1	3	-2	13.9	14.6	-0.69	13.1	14.9	-1.73
Nikola Jokic	28	29	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	8	-12	15.6	14.1	1.57	17.2	13.5	3.72
Julian Strawther	34	32	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.07	-8	12	-20	13.6	15.0	-1.32	14.4	14.7	-0.30

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Bagley III	51	51	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.18	8	-12	20	15.1	14.0	1.04	15.0	14.0	1.04
Marcus Sasser	10	10	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-6	8	16.1	14.4	1.70	15.2	14.4	0.76
Stanley Umude	39	40	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-2	0	13.9	15.0	-1.03	13.7	15.1	-1.33
Killian Hayes	29	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.12	-5	1	-6	14.6	14.6	-0.03	13.3	15.0	-1.70
James Wiseman	22	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.12	-10	6	-16	16.4	14.1	2.30	12.4	15.1	-2.77
Cade Cunningham	78	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.41	7	-11	18	14.6	14.4	0.19	15.2	12.1	3.12
Alec Burks	37	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.16	-13	9	-22	15.1	14.3	0.85	12.7	15.5	-2.82
Jaden Ivey	62	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.53	8	-12	20	14.1	15.4	-1.37	15.6	12.7	2.93
Isaiah Stewart	72	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	-3	2	14.5	14.7	-0.18	14.9	13.4	1.47
Isaiah Livers	48	49	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.36	-7	3	-10	13.5	15.6	-2.09	13.9	15.2	-1.30
Ausar Thompson	47	48	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	14.8	14.4	0.36	15.1	14.0	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.57,0.66,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.33,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 112, DEN 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.22,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.32,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.17,0	91.6%
IND 90, NJN 88	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.63,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.41,0.33,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.27,0	91.3%
LAL 111, MIN 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.55,0.46,0.32,0.42,0	91.3%