NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	9.2 [130]		MVP	Kristaps Porzingis (BOS): +27.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	100		Comeback	2.2 [744]		LVP	Santi Aldama (MEM): -21.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kristaps Porzingis	0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.28,0.28	0.15	0.14	0.02	13	74%	0.34	2	-0.06	9	89%	0.08
Sam Hauser	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.03	-0.01	8	94%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Payton Pritchard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Lamar Stevens	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	44%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jayson Tatum	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	13	62%	0.18	8	-0.26	6	83%	-0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.07	0.00	16	35%	-0.09	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.06,0,0,0,0.24,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	27	55%	0.23	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Vince Williams Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.02	12	55%	0.16	2	-0.09	7	86%	0.01
Jacob Gilyard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ziaire Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.00	11	27%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Lofton Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
David Roddy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Konchar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Santi Aldama	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.03,-0.13,-0.22	-0.22	0.07	-0.28	0.01	27	52%	-0.06	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.7	28.8	15.4	27.6	2.5	25.6	128.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +19.6%

BOS +20.5%

BOS +4.0%

BOS +3.4%

BOS +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MEM	NBA	BOS	MEM	NBA
this game	14.1	16.3	14.5	107.4	105.3	113.9
season	14.7	14.8		121.4	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.7		113.2	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.9	13.0	13.7	14.6	14.1
MEM	15.7	16.3	14.5	19.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kristaps Porzingis	66	68	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.46	4	-2	6	14.0	14.2	-0.21	16.1	16.5	-0.37
Sam Hauser	43	46	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-15	32	12.3	15.5	-3.13	16.4	16.1	0.27
Jaylen Brown	67	66	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	1	0	14.2	13.8	0.39	16.4	16.0	0.41
Derrick White	69	70	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.37	1	1	0	13.7	15.1	-1.45	15.6	18.0	-2.32
Jayson Tatum	70	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	3	-4	14.4	13.1	1.28	16.7	15.0	1.67
Jrue Holiday	73	70	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.52	-9	11	-20	14.8	11.7	3.04	16.7	15.0	1.70
Payton Pritchard	29	30	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	2	-2	14.1	14.0	0.06	16.2	16.3	-0.03
Al Horford	42	42	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.05	2	0	2	14.3	13.9	0.44	15.8	16.6	-0.79
Neemias Queta	11	10	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	5	-8	13.5	14.1	-0.69	14.6	16.4	-1.85
Lamar Stevens	5	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	4	-6	17.6	13.9	3.73	18.2	16.2	2.09

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Williams Jr.	31	33	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.11	8	-10	18	16.2	16.3	-0.04	14.3	13.9	0.37
Kenneth Lofton Jr.	26	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-3	4	15.5	16.5	-1.04	13.0	14.5	-1.56
Jacob Gilyard	28	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	0	-2	17.3	15.8	1.52	15.2	13.6	1.57
David Roddy	41	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	1	-4	15.8	16.6	-0.79	14.4	13.9	0.50
Bismack Biyombo	28	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.17	0	-2	2	16.7	16.1	0.65	14.9	13.7	1.25
Santi Aldama	80	79	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.42	4	-6	10	16.0	17.7	-1.68	13.9	14.7	-0.75
Ziaire Williams	47	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	3	-8	17.3	15.2	2.07	13.9	14.2	-0.25
Desmond Bane	74	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-3	4	15.6	18.7	-3.16	13.9	14.7	-0.84
Jaren Jackson Jr.	65	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.45	-1	-1	0	16.6	15.5	1.15	14.6	12.7	1.91
John Konchar	55	53	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.39	-13	11	-24	16.2	16.3	-0.17	13.1	15.3	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.53,0.31,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.36,0.45,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, NOH 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.46,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.08,0.13,0.25,0.28,0.43,0.28,0	92.2%
HOU 93, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.15,0.14,0.24,0.37,0.25,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.04,0	90.8%
MIL 113, MIN 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.1,0	90.5%