NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	6.8 [438]		MVP	Kevin Willis (SAS): +7.6%
New Orleans Hornets	90		Comeback	1.4 [683]		LVP	Courtney Alexander (NOH): -12.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.07	0.00	9	48%	0.05	0	0.00	7	86%	0.08
Manu Ginobili	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.02,-0.08,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	22	62%	0.17	4	-0.12	9	89%	0.04
Speedy Claxton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.03	0.00	3	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Steven Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	8	61%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	11	48%	-0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	8	78%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	80%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Jerome Moiso	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	20	57%	0.13	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	19	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.09	0.02	11	54%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	4	42%	-0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.5	31.8	15.8	23.2	2.0	36.2	133.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +12.5%

SAS +33.1%

NOH -5.5%

SAS +7.2%

SAS +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOH	NBA	SAS	NOH	NBA
this game	16.4	15.6	15.5	102.2	100.0	101.6
season	15.7	15.9		102.5	101.6
opponent	15.6	15.4		99.6	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.6	15.3	16.7	17.0	16.4
NOH	14.7	15.3	16.0	16.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	76	76	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.47	6	-4	10	16.3	16.7	-0.40	15.7	15.3	0.40
Malik Rose	55	56	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	0	2	16.9	15.6	1.23	15.8	15.4	0.39
Bruce Bowen	70	69	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.35	1	1	0	16.0	17.6	-1.57	14.8	18.5	-3.72
Tony Parker	62	60	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	-1	4	15.8	17.6	-1.78	15.2	16.4	-1.22
Stephen Jackson	66	66	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	-4	10	16.3	16.7	-0.39	16.5	13.3	3.18
Manu Ginobili	41	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.41	-5	7	-12	17.1	15.8	1.37	16.3	15.0	1.32
Speedy Claxton	28	30	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	3	-4	17.6	15.8	1.78	16.4	15.2	1.22
David Robinson	42	41	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.08	1	1	0	15.6	17.1	-1.51	15.9	15.4	0.43
Steven Smith	3	4	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	0	2	16.7	16.4	0.30	9.2	15.9	-6.67
Kevin Willis	7	7	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.02	-5	7	-12	18.1	16.2	1.91	12.4	15.9	-3.46

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Courtney Alexander	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-1	0	16.1	15.3	0.79	17.0	16.0	1.05
Robert Traylor	26	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	0	-2	16.5	15.3	1.18	16.6	16.3	0.36
Kenny Anderson	39	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.39	8	-10	18	15.8	15.5	0.35	17.3	15.7	1.62
Jerome Moiso	14	13	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	3	-8	15.7	15.6	0.11	15.8	16.5	-0.62
P.J. Brown	69	70	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.33	4	-6	10	15.4	16.2	-0.74	16.2	17.1	-0.99
Jamal Mashburn	80	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.33	1	-3	4	15.2	18.7	-3.46	16.3	17.0	-0.70
George Lynch	52	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.10	-8	6	-14	15.5	15.8	-0.34	16.3	16.5	-0.19
Jamaal Magloire	64	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-2	2	15.3	16.5	-1.18	16.3	16.6	-0.36
Baron Davis	73	74	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.46	-7	5	-12	16.0	14.2	1.78	16.0	17.9	-1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.46,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.08,0.13,0.25,0.28,0.43,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 100, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.15,0.17,0	91.7%
BOS 95, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.3,0.37,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.31,0.46,0.33,0.42,0	91.6%
BOS 94, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.17,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.07,0.23,0.08,0	91.6%