NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	8.6 [148]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +88.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Comeback	3.8 [430]		LVP	Sebastian Telfair (MIN): -27.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.89	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.44,0.44,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.72,0.89	0.38	0.51	0.00	18	92%	1.09	2	-0.21	12	92%	0.06
Tim Duncan	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.13	0.02	0.11	0.00	16	60%	0.31	4	-0.18	8	100%	0.11
Michael Finley	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	11	59%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Fabricio Oberto	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Robert Horry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.03,0.09,0.43	0.43	0.13	0.30	0.01	19	60%	0.56	2	-0.13	9	67%	-0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.11	-0.01	12	56%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	4	73%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	54%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.09,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	65%	0.14	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	8	35%	-0.02	3	-0.13	1	0%	-0.03
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.27	-0.27	0.01	-0.27	0.01	14	54%	-0.20	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	31.5	15.4	24.4	2.7	41.1	141.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +44.7%

SAS +4.0%

SAS +15.1%

MIN -7.2%

MIN -6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	16.5	16.6	15.4	113.6	115.1	105.7
season	16.5	15.9		104.7	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.3		109.6	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.5	14.5	18.4	15.2	16.5
MIN	15.8	16.2	18.5	16.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	44	45	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.44	13	-12	25	15.7	17.3	-1.68	15.9	17.4	-1.50
Tim Duncan	70	68	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.57	4	-3	7	17.0	14.7	2.23	15.9	19.2	-3.24
Ime Udoka	40	36	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.52	2	-1	3	16.0	16.9	-0.96	17.8	15.7	2.11
Manu Ginobili	73	71	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.55	0	1	-1	16.0	18.9	-2.85	15.8	20.3	-4.52
Bruce Bowen	43	43	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	3	-5	16.4	16.6	-0.25	16.0	17.2	-1.16
Jacque Vaughn	12	11	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.30	-3	4	-7	15.2	16.7	-1.54	17.3	16.5	0.77
Michael Finley	54	54	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.05	6	-5	11	17.1	15.6	1.53	16.9	16.1	0.86
Matt Bonner	13	13	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	1	-1	14.3	16.9	-2.57	14.3	17.0	-2.71
Robert Horry	26	26	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.10	1	0	1	18.8	15.5	3.33	18.6	15.7	2.83
Fabricio Oberto	33	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.12	-7	8	-15	15.5	17.1	-1.67	17.9	15.8	2.17
Tony Parker	32	30	-0.53	1.03	-1.56	-0.27	-9	10	-19	18.2	15.6	2.60	17.4	16.2	1.27

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	24	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	0	-1	19.8	15.4	4.42	15.0	17.1	-2.04
Craig Smith	23	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	1	-3	18.5	15.9	2.56	15.7	16.8	-1.03
Corey Brewer	22	24	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.10	1	-2	3	16.0	16.8	-0.87	16.2	16.6	-0.40
Marko Jaric	39	40	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	3	-7	18.1	15.3	2.79	17.0	16.1	0.87
Rashad McCants	57	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-5	9	16.9	15.9	1.02	17.1	15.4	1.67
Al Jefferson	66	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.47	3	-4	7	15.7	19.6	-3.90	17.1	14.7	2.42
Sebastian Telfair	63	64	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	2	-5	16.3	17.6	-1.31	16.5	16.5	-0.06
Ryan Gomes	59	61	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	1	-3	15.6	18.8	-3.22	16.7	16.0	0.77
Randy Foye	77	78	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.53	-1	0	-1	16.1	21.3	-5.28	15.9	20.9	-4.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.15,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 80, SAS 75	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.16,0	92.2%
BOS 107, POR 104	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.05,0	91.8%
MIN 97, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.36,0.47,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.17,0	91.7%