NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	94		Excitement	7.2 [370]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +24.0%
Orlando Magic	92		Comeback	1.8 [339]		LVP	Marcus Banks (BOS): -17.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.24	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.16	-0.01	22	59%	0.26	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.04
Vin Baker	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.06	0.02	13	66%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Jiri Welsch	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mark Blount	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	9	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	12	75%	-0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	10	23%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Marcus Banks	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	0.00	10	80%	0.23	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reece Gaines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.01	12	48%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	7	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	11	37%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	19	56%	0.06	4	-0.16	5	100%	0.03
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	6	33%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	12	39%	-0.16	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	483.2	2.4	28.5	17.3	23.5	2.4	32.3	589.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +29.6%

BOS +22.6%

ORL -13.4%

BOS +5.0%

BOS +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.6	17.4	15.7	104.4	102.2	100.5
season	14.4	15.7		99.5	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.9		108.2	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.7	13.7	14.9	16.6	14.6
ORL	14.6	17.7	19.4	18.5	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vin Baker	66	64	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.50	6	-4	10	15.1	13.2	1.95	17.8	16.3	1.48
Paul Pierce	70	67	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.46	6	-4	10	14.7	14.4	0.26	18.0	15.7	2.29
Mike James	58	55	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.50	2	0	2	15.3	13.3	2.05	17.7	17.0	0.70
Tony Battie	49	51	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.44	-5	7	-12	14.8	14.4	0.39	18.0	16.7	1.29
Mark Blount	35	33	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	-2	6	14.4	14.7	-0.28	17.2	17.5	-0.30
Jiri Welsch	42	44	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.09	2	0	2	14.6	14.6	0.08	16.9	17.9	-1.05
Eric Williams	57	57	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.31	-6	8	-14	15.1	13.8	1.33	16.4	19.2	-2.86
Kedrick Brown	18	18	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	0	2	13.0	15.0	-2.00	16.4	17.6	-1.19
Marcus Banks	32	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.06	0	2	-2	13.3	15.3	-2.05	17.0	17.7	-0.70
Walter McCarty	23	26	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.06	-1	3	-4	12.8	15.2	-2.44	17.8	17.2	0.63

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	16	13	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.06	6	-8	14	19.0	17.1	1.95	14.8	14.6	0.20
Andrew DeClercq	30	29	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.02	7	-9	16	18.8	16.7	2.10	14.6	14.6	-0.02
Reece Gaines	7	7	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-3	4	18.6	17.3	1.27	14.7	14.6	0.12
Donnell Harvey	55	54	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.36	12	-14	26	17.7	16.9	0.75	15.0	13.9	1.09
Rod Strickland	43	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-4	6	16.7	18.1	-1.43	14.1	15.0	-0.83
Steven Hunter	44	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.00	-9	7	-16	16.7	18.1	-1.36	13.6	15.6	-1.91
Drew Gooden	43	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-4	6	17.6	17.2	0.39	15.8	13.7	2.11
Tracy McGrady	64	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	4	-10	17.2	18.0	-0.79	14.2	15.8	-1.59
Tyronn Lue	40	42	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	3	-8	18.0	16.9	1.08	15.0	14.2	0.79
Juwan Howard	63	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.47	-4	2	-6	17.1	18.1	-1.07	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Gordan Giricek	45	46	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.31	-16	14	-30	16.8	18.0	-1.20	14.6	14.6	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.17,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.07,0.23,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 100, GSW 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.52,0.36,0.36,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.11,0.02,0,0,0	92.3%
BOS 107, POR 104	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.05,0	92.3%
DAL 99, MIN 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.25,0.37,0.26,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	92.3%