NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	6.0 [582]		MVP	Jalen Brunson (NYK): +35.6%
New York Knicks	100		Comeback	103.2 [30]		LVP	Julius Randle (NYK): -12.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.03	9	56%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	10	65%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	16	55%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.04
Haywood Highsmith	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	6	36%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Swider	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	7	44%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.06,-0.09	0.13	-0.19	0.03	14	68%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	17	42%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.13	0.20	-0.04	16	65%	0.41	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.04
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.23,0.2	0.20	0.03	0.15	-0.02	14	58%	0.25	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.04
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.00	0.05	17	59%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.03	7	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	45%	0.00	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Julius Randle	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	12	50%	0.01	6	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	3.4	26.0	15.5	31.5	3.7	30.2	137.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +61.0%

NYK +5.2%

NYK +6.8%

MIA -19.3%

MIA -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	14.1	15.2	14.5	99.0	102.0	113.9
season	14.9	15.6		112.3	117.0
opponent	14.4	14.8		112.4	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.2	14.9	11.0	17.3	14.1
NYK	17.5	13.9	16.7	12.7	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	48	48	0.31	-0.81	1.11	0.01	10	-12	22	12.8	15.2	-2.44	16.8	13.6	3.17
Caleb Martin	36	35	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.14	-1	-1	0	14.2	14.0	0.23	15.5	15.0	0.54
Kevin Love	40	38	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.13	-1	-1	0	13.5	14.4	-0.97	14.3	15.7	-1.43
Cole Swider	13	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	1	-4	14.1	14.0	0.03	15.2	15.2	0.02
Jimmy Butler	75	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.57	7	-9	16	13.7	15.0	-1.31	15.6	13.8	1.80
Kyle Lowry	69	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.57	3	-5	8	13.9	14.5	-0.60	15.1	15.4	-0.36
Bam Adebayo	71	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.49	0	-2	2	14.6	12.7	1.91	15.3	14.9	0.47
Josh Richardson	70	70	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.46	-7	5	-12	14.9	11.9	3.00	14.8	16.2	-1.43
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	73	72	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.40	-18	16	-34	14.2	13.5	0.75	14.3	17.6	-3.30

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Immanuel Quickley	53	53	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.37	22	-20	42	14.4	16.2	-1.82	14.5	13.5	0.95
Isaiah Hartenstein	57	57	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.21	18	-16	34	15.4	14.9	0.50	14.0	14.1	-0.16
RJ Barrett	70	69	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.43	9	-7	16	14.7	16.5	-1.83	15.4	11.0	4.33
Jalen Brunson	72	71	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.61	-6	8	-14	15.4	14.5	0.89	13.6	15.2	-1.62
Julius Randle	71	73	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.64	-8	10	-18	15.8	13.6	2.16	13.0	17.0	-4.05
Donte DiVincenzo	33	33	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	-5	12	14.3	15.7	-1.39	14.8	13.7	1.11
Josh Hart	53	55	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.22	5	-3	8	15.0	15.4	-0.38	13.9	14.3	-0.44
Mitchell Robinson	39	41	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.09	-17	19	-36	15.5	15.0	0.53	14.3	13.9	0.37
Quentin Grimes	42	43	-0.51	1.01	-1.53	0.07	-20	22	-42	16.1	14.5	1.54	13.5	14.4	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.26,0.22,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.32,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 94, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.33,0.58,1	90.9%
HOU 101, MIN 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.18,0.09,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.37,0.57,0.85,1	90.2%
MIN 82, SEA 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.05,0.12,0.23,0.91,1	89.0%