NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	101		Excitement	7.7 [396]		MVP	Joel Embiid (PHI): +64.5%
Philadelphia 76ers	103		Comeback	3.6 [448]		LVP	Tyrese Maxey (PHI): -12.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27	0.12	0.19	0.04	18	65%	0.32	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Grant Williams	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	7	71%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	16	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.06
Blake Griffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07	0.02	-0.09	-0.00	12	46%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	15	52%	0.07	3	-0.15	3	33%	-0.01
Jayson Tatum	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	20	42%	-0.08	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.05

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joel Embiid	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.65	0.65	0.38	0.28	0.01	25	83%	0.73	3	-0.08	13	92%	0.05
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,0.15,0.15,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.14	-0.00	5	110%	0.34	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	17	56%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jalen McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	29%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Danuel House Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Anthony Melton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	31%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.03	8	31%	-0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.5	24.5	15.4	24.6	3.3	41.3	138.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +59.8%

PHI +18.0%

BOS -11.9%

BOS -18.0%

PHI +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	PHI	NBA	BOS	PHI	NBA
this game	15.9	16.4	14.4	113.5	115.7	113.4
season	14.5	15.2		116.3	115.9
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.3	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.5	13.6	17.5	17.1	15.9
PHI	15.8	18.3	15.2	16.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Muscala	24	23	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.06	6	-8	14	15.4	16.1	-0.72	17.7	16.0	1.78
Blake Griffin	12	12	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-6	10	21.5	15.1	6.42	20.2	15.8	4.34
Malcolm Brogdon	52	50	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-5	8	15.3	16.8	-1.53	16.9	15.8	1.11
Sam Hauser	8	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-1	0	14.1	16.1	-2.00	11.1	16.9	-5.81
Luke Kornet	30	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	0	-2	14.5	16.7	-2.23	17.3	16.0	1.33
Derrick White	74	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.43	4	-6	10	16.0	15.6	0.41	17.0	13.5	3.55
Grant Williams	53	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	0	-2	16.8	14.7	2.00	16.2	16.8	-0.65
Marcus Smart	56	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.54	-1	-1	0	15.5	16.7	-1.25	16.1	17.0	-0.95
Al Horford	65	66	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.50	-8	6	-14	16.1	15.4	0.72	16.0	17.7	-1.78
Jayson Tatum	71	72	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.48	-13	11	-24	16.0	15.8	0.21	15.5	20.2	-4.65

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Embiid	73	72	0.95	-0.45	1.41	0.46	17	-15	32	15.7	19.7	-3.99	16.2	15.0	1.17
Tyrese Maxey	74	73	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.45	17	-15	32	15.6	20.2	-4.55	16.4	14.1	2.29
P.J. Tucker	51	51	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.51	14	-12	26	15.7	17.3	-1.57	16.3	15.5	0.82
Tobias Harris	64	64	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.50	9	-7	16	16.2	17.1	-0.92	16.1	15.6	0.48
James Harden	74	73	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.42	-4	6	-10	17.0	13.7	3.23	15.9	16.2	-0.37
Danuel House Jr.	3	3	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	6	-10	3.7	16.9	-13.19	5.7	16.3	-10.64
Jalen McDaniels	26	27	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.06	-6	8	-14	17.5	16.0	1.59	16.5	15.7	0.82
Georges Niang	30	29	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.05	-8	10	-18	17.6	15.8	1.79	15.5	16.1	-0.63
De'Anthony Melton	35	37	-0.42	0.92	-1.33	-0.06	-12	14	-26	17.2	15.9	1.25	15.0	16.6	-1.57
Paul Reed	15	16	-0.42	0.92	-1.35	-0.04	-13	15	-28	20.9	15.5	5.35	15.6	16.0	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.55,0.94,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 92, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.47,0.24,0.39,0.47,0.64,0.89,0.92,1	91.1%
LAL 96, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.34,0.17,0.31,0.64,0.77,0.9,1	91.0%
ATL 110, CHA 121	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.75,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.28,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.47,0.63,0.84,1,1	90.7%