NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	8.9 [195]		MVP	Max Strus (MIA): +16.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	99		Comeback	1.3 [478]		LVP	James Harden (PHI): -33.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Max Strus	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	9	65%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Victor Oladipo	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	6	92%	0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	14	68%	0.28	3	-0.20	6	67%	-0.05
Gabe Vincent	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	12	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Caleb Martin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Love	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	13	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.01	-0.00	14	38%	-0.01	5	-0.15	6	83%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.01	16	64%	0.19	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	2	133%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shake Milton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Anthony Melton	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	8	35%	0.01	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jalen McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joel Embiid	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.02,0.02,-0.12	-0.12	0.04	-0.15	0.02	17	66%	0.04	6	-0.17	7	100%	0.04
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	4	25%	-0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.21,-0.33	-0.33	-0.00	-0.31	0.02	14	56%	-0.09	4	-0.24	8	87%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	27.9	14.5	23.7	2.0	37.1	134.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +72.7%

PHI -21.6%

PHI -25.2%

MIA +20.7%

MIA +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	15.6	15.9	14.4	111.0	107.6	113.4
season	15.1	15.2		111.9	115.9
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.3	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.0	16.0	14.0	15.5	15.6
PHI	15.0	15.3	16.7	16.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	56	57	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	0	2	15.9	15.2	0.66	16.3	15.2	1.03
Tyler Herro	66	67	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	-1	4	15.7	15.3	0.39	15.6	16.6	-1.06
Cody Zeller	29	29	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	-7	16	16.5	15.2	1.29	16.4	15.6	0.85
Max Strus	43	42	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.17	6	-4	10	16.4	14.9	1.50	17.5	14.5	3.09
Jimmy Butler	63	64	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.31	-1	3	-4	15.1	16.7	-1.65	15.4	17.0	-1.62
Victor Oladipo	34	34	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	-2	6	16.6	15.0	1.57	16.9	15.3	1.65
Bam Adebayo	62	63	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.35	-7	9	-16	15.2	16.5	-1.29	15.6	16.4	-0.85
Gabe Vincent	60	61	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.34	-7	9	-16	15.2	16.5	-1.28	15.2	17.2	-2.05
Kevin Love	42	43	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	1	0	14.9	16.2	-1.34	15.0	16.6	-1.55

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrese Maxey	50	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-2	2	16.6	15.0	1.69	15.9	15.2	0.77
Paul Reed	25	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.10	0	-2	2	17.5	15.3	2.27	15.8	15.5	0.32
Shake Milton	19	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	0	-2	16.9	15.6	1.29	17.4	15.2	2.29
James Harden	78	76	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.40	10	-12	22	15.2	19.4	-4.20	15.1	18.1	-3.03
Jalen McDaniels	18	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.12	-1	-1	0	17.9	15.4	2.51	17.8	15.1	2.71
Tobias Harris	68	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-8	14	15.6	16.7	-1.08	15.2	16.7	-1.48
Georges Niang	12	13	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.01	-12	10	-22	17.7	15.6	2.07	17.5	15.3	2.17
De'Anthony Melton	61	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	0	-2	15.3	17.0	-1.70	15.4	16.0	-0.61
Joel Embiid	66	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	0	-2	15.2	17.5	-2.27	15.3	16.3	-0.93
P.J. Tucker	63	65	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.37	-7	5	-12	15.7	16.2	-0.54	15.2	16.5	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.26,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.17,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.45,0.32,0.41,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.18,0.14,0.29,0.33,0.26,0	92.5%
MEM 91, OKC 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.25,0.31,0	92.3%
MIA 101, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.29,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.42,0	92.0%