NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	8.1 [195]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +45.5%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	11.0 [152]		LVP	Brandon Knight (DET): -21.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.46	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.46,0.46,0.46	0.25	0.25	0.04	15	84%	0.46	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
LeBron James	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.27,0.25	0.06	0.16	-0.02	20	59%	0.47	4	-0.23	14	93%	0.21
Mario Chalmers	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.02	0.00	7	94%	0.20	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Mike Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	58%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	45%	0.03	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Eddy Curry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	3	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.17,0.17	0.17	-0.03	0.19	-0.00	7	50%	0.23	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.25,0.25,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	14	62%	0.15	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.06
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.04	0.04	0.15	-0.11	0.00	18	70%	0.14	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Walker Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	5	68%	0.10	4	-0.12	12	75%	0.03
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.12	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	3	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.08,-0.03,-0.09,-0.21	-0.21	-0.01	-0.20	0.01	14	52%	-0.06	3	-0.16	5	40%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	31.6	17.6	26.4	2.7	44.1	149.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +15.1%

MIA +26.2%

DET -32.1%

MIA +38.6%

MIA +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.0	16.4	15.6	113.5	110.1	102.8
season	15.5	16.3		105.6	99.5
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.4	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.1	15.4	17.3	13.8	16.0
DET	18.9	13.9	17.0	16.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	55	55	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.50	11	-8	19	15.1	17.5	-2.45	15.6	17.6	-1.97
LeBron James	76	77	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.37	6	-3	9	15.7	17.8	-2.09	16.7	14.3	2.35
Mario Chalmers	53	54	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	-6	15	14.9	17.6	-2.77	16.9	15.6	1.27
Chris Bosh	70	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	0	3	15.1	19.3	-4.16	16.8	15.0	1.86
Udonis Haslem	36	36	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.46	-4	7	-11	16.8	15.4	1.37	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Joel Anthony	50	49	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	-6	15	16.2	15.7	0.44	16.3	16.4	-0.14
Mike Miller	46	47	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	5	-7	16.8	15.1	1.64	16.3	16.5	-0.15
Eddy Curry	14	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.05	-3	6	-9	19.2	15.4	3.83	16.8	16.3	0.54
James Jones	7	6	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	7	-11	18.7	15.8	2.96	17.0	16.3	0.67
Norris Cole	38	37	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.02	-10	13	-23	17.5	14.9	2.59	15.7	16.9	-1.19

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	59	59	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.11	2	-5	7	17.3	14.5	2.87	16.7	14.5	2.25
Walker Russell	8	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	0	-3	15.5	16.5	-0.96	16.1	16.0	0.15
Jason Maxiell	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-2	1	14.8	17.3	-2.56	16.1	15.9	0.16
Ben Wallace	40	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	3	-9	18.0	15.0	3.05	16.3	15.7	0.52
Jonas Jerebko	47	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.40	5	-8	13	15.4	17.5	-2.05	16.4	15.6	0.83
Austin Daye	59	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.38	2	-5	7	15.6	17.9	-2.26	15.7	16.6	-0.96
Brandon Knight	78	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.38	1	-4	5	15.9	19.8	-3.93	15.8	17.7	-1.93
Greg Monroe	58	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.31	-4	1	-5	16.9	15.4	1.56	15.4	17.0	-1.63
Damien Wilkins	63	63	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.61	-11	8	-19	16.9	15.1	1.77	15.8	16.3	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.29,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 96, HOU 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.28,0	92.0%
UTA 96, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.15,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.29,0.19,0.34,0.25,0.55,0.35,0.58,0	91.7%
TOR 102, ATL 101	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.16,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.37,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.58,0	91.4%