NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	91		Excitement	9.4 [104]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +57.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	89		Comeback	3.0 [520]		LVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): -22.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.58	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.23,0.58	0.11	0.48	0.01	14	62%	0.58	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Courtney Lee	0.32	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.34,0.34,0.32	0.14	0.20	0.02	8	81%	0.32	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Tony Allen	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	64%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	2	33%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Zach Randolph	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14	0.00	-0.15	-0.01	16	44%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Marc Gasol	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.00	11	36%	-0.04	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.27	0.27	0.03	0.26	0.01	20	54%	0.35	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.04
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	15	55%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	11	54%	0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Ish Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	3	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.13
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.18,-0.18,-0.02,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	15	52%	0.13	5	-0.21	1	0%	-0.03
Lance Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	0.05	-0.22	0.01	9	65%	-0.06	1	-0.12	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	3.3	25.5	16.7	27.3	3.3	45.3	143.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +3.5%

MEM +27.6%

OKC -45.3%

MEM +56.7%

MEM +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	OKC	NBA	MEM	OKC	NBA
this game	15.9	16.1	15.1	101.1	98.9	104.2
season	15.9	14.5		103.8	105.7
opponent	15.0	15.2		103.5	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.1	15.2	16.3	16.0	15.9
OKC	17.4	16.1	17.2	13.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	64	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-3	8	16.3	14.9	1.37	15.7	17.2	-1.48
Mike Conley	65	66	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	2	-2	16.0	15.6	0.36	15.8	17.0	-1.23
Quincy Pondexter	30	30	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	-5	12	16.1	15.8	0.30	15.6	16.4	-0.80
Marc Gasol	78	78	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.45	-4	6	-10	15.6	17.8	-2.23	16.1	16.3	-0.27
Courtney Lee	66	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.43	-4	6	-10	15.8	16.3	-0.53	16.1	16.0	0.13
Vince Carter	37	36	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	1	0	15.0	16.5	-1.57	16.4	15.9	0.48
Kosta Koufos	27	27	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	-1	4	17.0	15.4	1.57	16.9	15.8	1.13
Beno Udrih	25	24	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.07	2	0	2	15.6	16.0	-0.36	17.0	15.8	1.23
Tony Allen	47	47	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	2	-2	16.7	15.0	1.68	16.2	16.0	0.15
Jon Leuer	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	2	-2	13.0	16.3	-3.30	16.9	16.0	0.92

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	8	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	0	-2	16.5	16.1	0.44	15.2	16.0	-0.71
Serge Ibaka	64	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.41	10	-12	22	15.3	18.0	-2.73	16.2	15.1	1.07
Kendrick Perkins	25	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-1	0	18.0	15.4	2.58	16.0	15.9	0.14
Lance Thomas	55	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.07	-6	4	-10	17.1	14.5	2.69	16.0	15.8	0.20
Sebastian Telfair	32	33	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	5	-12	17.3	15.4	1.88	15.8	15.9	-0.08
Jeremy Lamb	77	77	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-7	12	16.0	16.8	-0.78	15.8	16.2	-0.39
Steven Adams	65	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-1	0	15.4	18.0	-2.58	15.9	16.0	-0.14
Reggie Jackson	79	79	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.47	-1	-1	0	15.6	19.6	-4.03	16.2	13.9	2.27
Nick Collison	45	47	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.35	-7	5	-12	16.1	16.1	-0.07	15.1	16.7	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.25,0.31,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 112, LAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.29,0.29,0.1,0.16,0	92.2%
PHX 93, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.17,0.27,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.09,0	92.1%
UTA 98, LAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.15,0	91.9%