NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	125		Excitement	11.4 [33]		MVP	Jrue Holiday (MIL): +93.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	131		Comeback	11.7 [316]		LVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): -36.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Hauser	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.09	0.32	0.01	12	62%	0.40	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.35	0.06	0.27	-0.02	17	60%	0.46	3	-0.11	9	89%	0.11
Blake Griffin	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	9	79%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Payton Pritchard	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	6	46%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Derrick White	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,-0.09,-0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.03	24	52%	0.17	3	-0.15	4	100%	0.05
Luke Kornet	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	5	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.07	0.04	16	53%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Williams	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.26	-0.06	-0.21	-0.01	10	52%	0.04	5	-0.31	3	67%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.94	0.94	0.25	0.70	0.01	21	83%	1.06	5	-0.12	6	100%	0.08
Grayson Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.31	0.31	0.11	0.19	-0.00	5	87%	0.31	0	0.00	5	100%	0.11
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.01	16	48%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	3	40%	-0.01	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	5	50%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.34,-0.37,-0.37,-0.42,-0.42,-0.38,-0.36	-0.36	-0.09	-0.24	0.04	26	51%	-0.06	8	-0.31	19	58%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.4	3.4	30.0	15.6	29.8	2.6	39.4	2.5	15.1	164.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -0.8%

MIL +16.6%

MIL +33.5%

MIL +4.1%

BOS -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.0	12.7	14.4	108.7	114.9	113.4
season	14.5	14.0		116.3	113.8
opponent	14.2	14.6		111.1	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	15.0	14.0	13.2	17.4	17.7	15.0
MIL	12.2	12.6	13.0	12.6	14.1	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Blake Griffin	55	56	0.47	-0.97	1.45	0.04	15	-21	36	14.1	15.9	-1.88	13.1	12.4	0.64
Luke Kornet	4	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-3	0	20.2	14.8	5.40	7.7	12.9	-5.20
Grant Williams	103	101	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.41	9	-15	24	14.9	16.1	-1.17	12.7	13.3	-0.65
Sam Hauser	82	86	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.47	7	-13	20	15.0	15.1	-0.08	13.0	11.9	1.11
Mike Muscala	97	95	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-2	-2	14.7	16.8	-2.13	12.7	12.6	0.12
Robert Williams III	27	24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	5	-16	15.0	15.0	0.00	13.2	12.6	0.56
Derrick White	95	95	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.32	-5	-1	-4	15.0	15.2	-0.26	12.6	13.4	-0.77
Payton Pritchard	31	30	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	11	-28	15.9	14.7	1.23	11.7	13.1	-1.35
Malcolm Brogdon	81	80	-0.90	0.40	-1.30	-0.28	-21	15	-36	15.7	13.4	2.35	12.9	12.4	0.45

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jevon Carter	31	34	0.96	-0.46	1.43	0.55	14	-8	22	12.2	12.9	-0.69	15.1	15.0	0.03
Giannis Antetokounmpo	101	102	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.27	14	-8	22	12.6	13.8	-1.18	14.9	16.1	-1.17
Khris Middleton	49	51	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.12	19	-13	32	12.2	13.1	-0.85	17.0	13.5	3.53
Pat Connaughton	78	77	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.58	-7	13	-20	12.7	12.8	-0.07	14.5	16.1	-1.52
Jrue Holiday	93	94	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	5	-4	12.6	13.2	-0.57	14.8	16.0	-1.18
Joe Ingles	64	64	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-5	16	13.3	11.9	1.40	15.1	15.0	0.13
Grayson Allen	79	76	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.30	-10	16	-26	13.1	11.8	1.34	14.7	15.6	-0.92
Brook Lopez	56	55	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	11	-16	12.6	12.9	-0.31	15.6	14.5	1.08
Wesley Matthews	19	22	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	-0.24	-7	13	-20	12.8	12.7	0.07	13.2	15.5	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.18,0.3,0.42,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.64,0.29,0.33,0.76,0.79,0.76,0.9,0.54,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 123, NOP 124	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.47,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.25,0.72,1	86.9%
NYK 96, ATL 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.15,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.15,0.15,1	86.9%
DAL 99, CLE 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.53,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.54,0.24,0.29,0.55,0.58,1	85.9%