NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	137		Excitement	7.2 [475]		MVP	Trae Young (ATL): +24.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	132		Comeback	1.9 [659]		LVP	Kenrich Williams (OKC): -6.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trae Young	0.24	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.24	0.10	0.13	-0.01	20	65%	0.38	5	-0.14	11	91%	0.03
John Collins	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	12	68%	0.22	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.06
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.02	0.02	11	77%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Clint Capela	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.02	0.04	8	82%	0.12	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Jalen Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.01	3	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
AJ Griffin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Aaron Holiday	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.09	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	19	52%	0.04	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.07	-0.00	16	71%	0.23	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.08	0.08	0.16	-0.06	0.03	22	67%	0.19	4	-0.12	10	90%	0.03
Ousmane Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	7	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.05	4	112%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	3	57%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tre Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	10	55%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Giddey	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	19	41%	0.00	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	45%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	29.0	14.6	23.5	2.3	32.7	128.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +43.5%

ATL +15.8%

ATL +4.3%

OKC -12.2%

OKC -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	OKC	NBA	ATL	OKC	NBA
this game	14.3	12.7	14.4	129.2	123.4	113.4
season	13.8	13.7		115.1	113.5
opponent	14.5	14.4		112.8	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.3	14.0	14.6	15.5	14.3
OKC	11.9	13.7	12.6	12.7	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
AJ Griffin	52	51	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.19	22	-17	39	12.8	15.8	-2.95	14.0	11.6	2.45
Onyeka Okongwu	44	44	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.12	21	-16	37	13.1	15.2	-2.16	14.6	11.4	3.22
Jalen Johnson	39	39	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.07	13	-8	21	12.8	15.2	-2.39	13.7	12.1	1.57
Aaron Holiday	35	36	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	-1	7	10.9	16.0	-5.06	11.8	13.2	-1.38
Bogdan Bogdanovic	75	76	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	5	-5	15.2	12.2	2.97	12.6	13.1	-0.49
Dejounte Murray	81	81	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	6	-7	15.8	9.6	6.19	13.0	12.0	0.95
John Collins	65	65	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.24	-7	12	-19	15.4	12.6	2.81	12.4	13.2	-0.81
Trae Young	77	80	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.27	-11	16	-27	14.4	14.3	0.07	12.0	14.9	-2.90
Clint Capela	62	63	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.21	-18	23	-41	15.2	13.1	2.16	11.4	14.6	-3.22

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenrich Williams	64	63	0.24	-0.74	0.97	-0.32	19	-24	43	12.2	13.4	-1.21	16.6	11.0	5.52
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	85	83	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.32	9	-14	23	11.8	16.1	-4.24	14.0	15.6	-1.58
Aaron Wiggins	26	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.25	6	-11	17	14.5	12.2	2.30	17.0	13.4	3.58
Luguentz Dort	65	62	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-1	-3	12.0	13.8	-1.72	14.3	14.4	-0.10
Josh Giddey	65	65	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-4	3	12.8	12.7	0.09	15.3	12.9	2.41
Jalen Williams	81	81	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-9	13	12.5	13.4	-0.88	15.1	11.9	3.15
Isaiah Joe	39	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-4	3	11.1	13.7	-2.63	10.7	16.4	-5.71
Darius Bazley	30	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-3	1	14.6	12.0	2.66	16.4	13.5	2.95
Tre Mann	26	27	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	9	-23	15.9	11.7	4.23	12.2	15.1	-2.88
Mike Muscala	30	29	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.07	-18	13	-31	11.9	13.0	-1.09	9.6	16.1	-6.58
Ousmane Dieng	24	23	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	0.00	-23	18	-41	15.5	11.9	3.58	13.0	14.7	-1.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.19,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 102, MIL 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.36,0.42,0.26,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.3%
PHI 123, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.52,0.59,0.4,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.1%
MIL 94, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.19,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.9%