NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	116		Excitement	9.6 [118]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +36.1%
Denver Nuggets	119		Comeback	11.4 [266]		LVP	Markelle Fultz (ORL): -8.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bol Bol	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.09	0.15	0.00	12	68%	0.27	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Paolo Banchero	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.10	0.02	9	75%	0.23	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.05
Franz Wagner	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.26,0.17,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	16	53%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Jalen Suggs	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	58%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Bamba	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,0	-0.05	0.06	0.01	10	36%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Moritz Wagner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	6	47%	0.04	1	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	6	58%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	7	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.02
Markelle Fultz	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.09	0.06	-0.12	0.03	10	77%	0.04	5	-0.13	6	50%	-0.16

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.36	0.36	0.05	0.31	-0.01	11	77%	0.45	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.35	0.35	0.14	0.22	0.01	13	68%	0.37	1	-0.02	11	45%	-0.06
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.00	4	112%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	0.00	11	52%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	9	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.12,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	17	49%	0.08	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.08	0.02	13	62%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.7	34.0	14.6	28.2	1.8	33.0	139.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.6%

ORL -16.5%

ORL -2.9%

ORL -1.4%

DEN +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.2	15.5	14.4	114.9	119.0	113.4
season	14.3	14.7		111.0	116.6
opponent	14.5	14.5		112.3	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.7	14.3	11.5	13.0	13.2
DEN	14.0	13.3	16.2	19.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Moritz Wagner	35	34	0.42	-0.92	1.33	0.04	13	-16	29	11.4	14.1	-2.73	15.1	15.7	-0.68
Franz Wagner	70	69	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.42	21	-24	45	11.6	16.7	-5.17	15.5	15.5	0.08
Terrence Ross	48	48	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-4	5	13.1	13.2	-0.14	16.3	14.8	1.54
Mo Bamba	1	2	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-1	-1	16.0	13.1	2.87	17.0	15.5	1.52
Bol Bol	37	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-2	1	14.0	12.7	1.37	16.6	14.9	1.72
Gary Harris	46	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-1	-1	13.3	13.0	0.27	14.5	16.3	-1.79
Cole Anthony	51	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-6	9	12.8	13.6	-0.80	16.0	15.0	0.96
Jalen Suggs	29	29	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.04	-10	7	-17	13.7	12.9	0.79	13.6	16.3	-2.76
Markelle Fultz	57	57	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.41	-8	5	-13	13.5	12.8	0.68	15.2	15.9	-0.74
Wendell Carter Jr.	65	64	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.44	-14	11	-25	14.1	11.5	2.58	15.7	15.2	0.54
Paolo Banchero	66	66	-0.92	0.42	-1.33	-0.45	-16	13	-29	14.1	11.4	2.73	15.7	15.1	0.68

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	69	69	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.45	16	-13	29	16.0	14.4	1.67	14.1	11.2	2.93
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	70	70	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.52	11	-8	19	16.0	14.3	1.68	13.6	12.2	1.39
Aaron Gordon	65	64	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.48	11	-8	19	16.3	14.1	2.19	13.9	11.9	2.00
Michael Porter Jr.	57	56	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	2	-1	16.0	14.9	1.06	13.5	12.7	0.85
Bruce Brown	53	54	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.09	10	-7	17	14.3	16.8	-2.49	13.1	13.2	-0.10
Jamal Murray	79	81	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.39	-9	12	-21	15.9	14.2	1.67	13.1	13.2	-0.05
Bones Hyland	19	20	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	1	1	14.4	15.8	-1.41	12.4	13.3	-0.95
Christian Braun	22	22	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.03	-6	9	-15	15.3	15.6	-0.30	11.7	13.6	-1.89
Zeke Nnaji	35	37	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.07	-8	11	-19	14.1	16.3	-2.19	11.9	13.9	-2.00
DeAndre Jordan	31	32	-0.42	0.92	-1.33	-0.04	-13	16	-29	14.4	16.0	-1.67	11.2	14.1	-2.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.68,0.66,0.82,0.77,0.89,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.53,0.54,0.17,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 87, SEA 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.15,0.26,1	92.1%
WAS 93, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.28,0.06,0.28,1	90.3%
MIL 94, PHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.63,0.64,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.28,0.32,0.17,1	89.5%