NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	109		Excitement	6.3 [676]		MVP	Franz Wagner (ORL): +30.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	106		Comeback	1.1 [392]		LVP	Jerami Grant (POR): -11.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.13	0.13	-0.04	20	66%	0.34	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Markelle Fultz	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21	0.10	0.11	0.01	8	90%	0.27	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.06
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.01	11	77%	0.22	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Moritz Wagner	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	79%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	6	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Caleb Houstan	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	16	45%	0.00	5	-0.10	10	80%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.02	25	56%	0.16	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.07
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	64%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Shaedon Sharpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	5	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anfernee Simons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	16	45%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Drew Eubanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Keon Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Walker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	-0.01	14	59%	0.07	5	-0.13	9	78%	0.01
Jerami Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	19	42%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	28.4	14.5	26.5	1.7	33.5	134.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +44.0%

POR -0.1%

POR -4.5%

ORL +9.5%

ORL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	POR	NBA	ORL	POR	NBA
this game	15.0	14.6	14.4	112.4	108.2	113.4
season	14.3	14.7		111.0	113.4
opponent	14.1	14.5		117.3	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.3	15.0	14.0	19.6	15.0
POR	13.9	14.3	16.0	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	60	62	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.18	19	-16	35	13.8	16.9	-3.09	15.3	13.3	1.94
Franz Wagner	69	70	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.25	14	-11	25	14.9	15.2	-0.33	15.1	13.2	1.94
Wendell Carter Jr.	60	61	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-9	21	15.2	14.7	0.49	15.4	13.2	2.25
Markelle Fultz	71	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	-4	11	14.6	16.0	-1.45	15.4	12.1	3.33
Paolo Banchero	74	75	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.34	7	-4	11	14.8	15.4	-0.60	15.3	12.3	3.01
Caleb Houstan	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	3	-3	14.2	15.0	-0.82	9.7	14.9	-5.21
Jalen Suggs	26	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.06	-4	7	-11	16.0	14.6	1.45	12.1	15.4	-3.33
Moritz Wagner	37	37	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.14	-9	12	-21	14.7	15.2	-0.49	13.2	15.4	-2.25
Cole Anthony	50	49	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.29	-15	18	-33	16.0	13.9	2.15	13.8	15.3	-1.57
Terrence Ross	33	32	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	0.17	-16	19	-35	16.2	14.4	1.82	12.4	15.6	-3.15

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaedon Sharpe	34	35	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.13	8	-11	19	12.0	15.9	-3.97	14.9	15.0	-0.19
Jabari Walker	17	17	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-7	11	13.2	14.9	-1.68	15.6	14.8	0.74
Drew Eubanks	34	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.29	7	-10	17	12.9	15.5	-2.57	17.3	13.8	3.48
Gary Payton II	31	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-1	-1	13.6	15.0	-1.43	15.3	14.8	0.50
Josh Hart	67	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-2	1	15.0	13.6	1.43	15.0	14.9	0.11
Jusuf Nurkic	64	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	7	-17	15.5	12.9	2.57	13.8	17.3	-3.48
Anfernee Simons	87	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.40	-1	-2	1	14.7	13.5	1.14	15.0	14.5	0.49
Jerami Grant	81	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	2	-7	14.9	13.2	1.68	14.8	15.6	-0.74
Damian Lillard	75	74	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.29	-13	10	-23	15.6	11.2	4.37	14.8	15.6	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 116, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.17,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.3%
TOR 106, LAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.02,0,0,0	92.9%
NOH 89, NYK 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.15,0	92.7%