NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Brooklyn Nets	102		Excitement	9.8 [100]		MVP	Seth Curry (BKN): +29.6%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	7.8 [285]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (MIA): -27.9%

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Seth Curry	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.09	0.20	-0.00	9	74%	0.33	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Royce O'Neale	0.26	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.24,0.26	-0.07	0.30	-0.03	11	35%	0.43	2	-0.17	1	100%	0.00
Nic Claxton	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.01	8	72%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Harris	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.04	11	59%	0.14	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.02
T.J. Warren	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.08	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ben Simmons	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	-0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.06,-0.12	0.15	-0.23	0.03	21	63%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Yuta Watanabe	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.18	-0.00	-0.18	0.00	1	150%	0.04	2	-0.22	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.34,0.28,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	21	53%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.05	0.02	4	125%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	10	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	150%	0.08	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	15	30%	-0.10	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.21,-0.11	-0.11	0.03	-0.13	0.00	21	51%	-0.04	2	-0.06	9	78%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.28	-0.28	-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	10	20%	-0.11	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	30.2	14.8	28.1	1.8	31.3	131.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BKN +94.4%

MIA -1.1%

MIA -12.5%

MIA -31.8%

BKN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BKN	MIA	NBA	BKN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	16.0	14.4	109.7	108.6	113.4
season	14.4	15.1		113.7	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.8		112.1	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BKN	14.5	15.4	15.2	15.0	15.0
MIA	15.5	12.8	18.4	17.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Simmons	58	57	1.00	-0.50	1.51	0.77	8	-7	15	14.0	16.7	-2.69	16.1	15.7	0.43
Royce O'Neale	66	65	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.54	5	-4	9	15.2	14.7	0.48	16.9	13.7	3.21
Kyrie Irving	75	77	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.47	7	-6	13	15.1	14.6	0.50	16.7	12.5	4.18
Yuta Watanabe	36	38	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.44	4	-3	7	14.4	15.4	-0.97	15.5	16.3	-0.73
Nic Claxton	57	57	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.50	-3	4	-7	15.6	14.1	1.42	17.1	14.1	2.97
Joe Harris	27	28	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.18	6	-5	11	15.7	14.7	0.98	14.0	16.8	-2.80
Kevin Durant	60	58	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	3	-5	15.2	14.7	0.53	15.4	16.9	-1.49
Seth Curry	48	47	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.15	-4	5	-9	15.2	14.8	0.41	16.0	15.9	0.04
T.J. Warren	38	38	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	-0.05	-16	17	-33	14.8	15.1	-0.33	13.6	17.6	-4.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Orlando Robinson	40	38	0.42	-0.92	1.33	-0.29	24	-25	49	14.5	17.0	-2.51	15.4	14.7	0.65
Gabe Vincent	36	39	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.14	-2	1	-3	14.9	16.6	-1.70	14.4	15.5	-1.08
Max Strus	51	53	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.27	11	-12	23	15.5	16.5	-0.90	15.0	15.1	-0.11
Victor Oladipo	56	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.41	8	-9	17	14.0	18.9	-4.92	14.9	15.2	-0.25
Haywood Highsmith	32	32	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.04	-14	13	-27	18.7	14.5	4.16	15.0	15.0	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	59	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.59	4	-5	9	16.3	15.3	1.00	15.3	14.6	0.74
Jimmy Butler	66	65	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.56	-3	2	-5	16.2	15.4	0.77	15.1	14.9	0.22
Bam Adebayo	53	55	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	0.06	-25	24	-49	17.0	14.5	2.51	14.7	15.4	-0.65
Tyler Herro	72	71	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.46	-8	7	-15	16.6	13.9	2.71	15.2	14.5	0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.89,0.77,0.69,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.46,0.15,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 88, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.47,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.14,0.42,0	90.0%
HOU 97, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.64,0.62,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.54,0.27,0.45,0.28,0.43,0.85,0	90.0%
TOR 96, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.62,0.8,0.77,0.53,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.54,0.45,0.42,0	89.9%