NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	126		Excitement	8.7 [229]		MVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): +38.1%
San Antonio Spurs	125		Comeback	1.7 [1011]		LVP	Romeo Langford (SAS): -12.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Doncic	0.38	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.38	0.35	0.07	0.04	29	70%	0.38	0	0.00	15	60%	-0.09
Christian Wood	0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.18	0.09	0.00	15	78%	0.28	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Frank Ntilikina	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.23	0.07	0.14	-0.03	6	75%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	83%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.04
Reggie Bullock	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.01	0.06	-0.05	-0.00	11	64%	0.16	1	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
McKinley Wright IV	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Davis Bertans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.09	0.16	-0.01	10	70%	0.36	2	-0.10	7	71%	0.05
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	6	93%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.20	-0.09	0.03	19	67%	0.08	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.09	-0.01	12	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.04
Malaki Branham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tre Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	-0.09	0.02	11	64%	0.13	2	-0.18	6	67%	-0.21
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Romeo Langford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.0	22.2	15.3	26.3	2.7	44.7	138.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +84.3%

SAS -37.1%

SAS -29.3%

DAL +26.9%

DAL +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	14.2	14.4	131.2	131.6	113.4
season	15.2	14.0		115.5	109.2
opponent	14.1	14.3		119.0	115.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.6	16.5	16.2	15.6	16.0
SAS	12.6	16.2	15.8	12.6	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luka Doncic	76	75	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.41	7	-6	13	15.5	17.7	-2.20	13.9	15.3	-1.47
Tim Hardaway Jr.	76	75	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.41	7	-6	13	15.5	17.7	-2.20	13.9	15.3	-1.47
Frank Ntilikina	34	34	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.40	1	0	1	16.1	15.9	0.20	15.9	13.2	2.68
Spencer Dinwiddie	72	71	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.50	-6	7	-13	16.2	15.2	1.00	14.2	14.1	0.09
Dwight Powell	38	38	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.01	8	-7	15	16.1	15.8	0.29	14.5	14.0	0.52
Christian Wood	58	57	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	7	-13	15.8	16.1	-0.29	14.0	14.5	-0.52
Reggie Bullock	63	62	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	-1	3	16.4	15.2	1.23	14.6	13.3	1.31
Davis Bertans	23	23	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	3	-5	15.1	16.2	-1.09	11.9	14.9	-3.06
McKinley Wright IV	40	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.09	-5	6	-11	16.9	15.2	1.70	14.5	14.0	0.49

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	37	36	0.40	-0.90	1.31	-0.12	18	-19	37	15.1	13.6	1.42	17.2	15.2	1.93
Josh Richardson	34	34	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-6	11	14.2	14.2	-0.02	16.7	15.5	1.16
Zach Collins	36	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-3	5	13.6	14.5	-0.89	16.2	15.8	0.42
Malaki Branham	41	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	1	-3	14.0	14.4	-0.38	16.5	15.6	0.88
Jakob Poeltl	57	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-1	1	14.9	13.1	1.81	16.1	15.7	0.45
Tre Jones	64	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	2	-5	14.5	13.6	0.81	15.5	17.0	-1.52
Keldon Johnson	69	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	1	-3	14.4	13.7	0.63	16.1	15.7	0.36
Jeremy Sochan	65	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.40	-2	1	-3	13.9	14.9	-1.04	15.8	16.2	-0.35
Romeo Langford	35	36	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.07	-16	15	-31	13.6	14.5	-0.89	14.9	16.6	-1.62
Stanley Johnson	37	38	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	4	-9	13.3	14.7	-1.42	14.9	16.7	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.21,0.22,0.34,0.14,0.28,0.23,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 100, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.28,0.06,0.05,0	93.0%
SAS 100, BKN 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.27,0.24,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.09,0	92.3%
UTA 107, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.16,0.08,0	91.9%