NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	126		Excitement	7.3 [451]		MVP	Malik Monk (SAC): +66.2%
Sacramento Kings	127		Comeback	31.1 [47]		LVP	Trey Lyles (SAC): -7.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.30	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.48,0.3	0.15	0.13	-0.02	24	69%	0.40	5	-0.10	10	100%	0.11
Christian Braun	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19	0.06	0.13	0.00	5	90%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	0.15	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.04	-0.02	16	61%	0.24	1	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.00	4	112%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	9	78%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.02	0.01	12	70%	0.11	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Ish Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Davon Reed	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeAndre Jordan	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.09	-0.01	7	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.66	0.66	0.17	0.53	0.04	21	69%	0.70	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.34	0.34	0.16	0.20	0.03	18	70%	0.36	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.01
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.31,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.00	0.01	21	66%	0.41	4	-0.31	5	100%	0.03
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	7	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
KZ Okpala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	8	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08	-0.08	0.04	-0.10	0.02	3	83%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.3	30.8	12.8	26.3	2.4	29.6	130.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +8.9%

SAC +28.4%

SAC +16.2%

DEN -6.5%

SAC +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	12.5	14.4	127.3	123.3	113.4
season	14.7	13.5		116.6	117.3
opponent	14.8	14.5		115.2	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	15.2	16.8	18.5	16.1
SAC	15.5	10.7	13.2	10.8	12.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	31	31	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-5	9	15.2	16.5	-1.29	12.6	12.5	0.11
DeAndre Jordan	31	32	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-1	1	16.1	16.1	0.07	12.9	12.3	0.54
Davon Reed	16	15	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.12	-2	1	-3	16.6	16.0	0.57	13.7	12.3	1.36
Vlatko Cancar	30	31	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.10	-2	1	-3	16.3	16.0	0.31	13.0	12.3	0.71
Zeke Nnaji	65	68	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-3	5	16.2	15.9	0.30	12.5	12.5	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	65	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.69	6	-7	13	15.5	17.1	-1.62	12.1	13.3	-1.22
Christian Braun	47	48	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.33	-7	6	-13	16.3	15.9	0.45	13.4	11.7	1.67
Nikola Jokic	68	71	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.55	-1	0	-1	16.1	16.1	-0.07	12.3	12.9	-0.54
Michael Porter Jr.	74	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.58	0	-1	1	16.1	15.9	0.22	11.9	14.3	-2.46
Bones Hyland	68	72	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.51	-5	4	-9	16.5	15.2	1.29	12.5	12.6	-0.11

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	81	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.36	5	-4	9	11.8	15.0	-3.17	16.3	15.4	0.89
Domantas Sabonis	81	77	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.61	-4	5	-9	12.0	14.5	-2.48	16.7	14.0	2.68
Malik Monk	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	-7	15	12.5	12.5	0.03	16.6	15.2	1.35
Trey Lyles	49	48	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	-12	25	13.1	12.0	1.14	17.6	14.6	3.00
Harrison Barnes	52	47	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.63	-13	14	-27	13.8	11.2	2.63	14.4	17.6	-3.23
Davion Mitchell	41	40	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.24	0	1	-1	13.6	11.8	1.75	17.8	14.9	2.93
Kevin Huerter	40	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.41	-6	7	-13	12.7	12.3	0.40	14.8	16.8	-2.03
KZ Okpala	39	38	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	-2	5	10.6	13.7	-3.04	15.6	16.4	-0.77
Richaun Holmes	22	22	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	-4	9	14.5	12.0	2.48	14.0	16.7	-2.68
Keegan Murray	48	45	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.03	-6	7	-13	12.0	12.9	-0.87	15.1	16.9	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.2,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.27,0.19,0.08,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.3,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.32,0.58,1	92.9%
ATL 88, BOS 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.13,0.22,0.27,1	92.7%
ATL 93, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.36,0.15,0.43,0.42,1	92.7%