NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	10.2 [72]		MVP	Brook Lopez (MIL): +31.4%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	10.4 [179]		LVP	Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL): -20.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.31	-0.03	0.34	-0.01	4	40%	0.34	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
George Hill	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.13	-0.00	3	100%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.01	0.09	-0.03	9	44%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grayson Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.02	8	63%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,0.02,0.13,0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	20	56%	0.28	7	-0.29	10	70%	0.01
Bobby Portis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	11	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.05	-0.10	0.01	13	61%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jevon Carter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.07,-0.18	0.01	-0.19	0.01	17	47%	-0.17	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	69%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	14	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	13	50%	0.03	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Luka Doncic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.14	-0.14	0.06	-0.21	-0.01	28	50%	-0.11	1	-0.03	10	40%	-0.10
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.12	0.00	9	38%	-0.14	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.20
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.2	-0.20	-0.02	-0.18	0.00	6	36%	-0.20	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.20

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	32.2	14.8	30.1	3.5	40.2	146.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +47.7%

MIL +45.6%

DAL -2.9%

DAL -43.9%

MIL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DAL	NBA	MIL	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.4	14.4	110.4	106.1	113.4
season	14.0	15.2		113.8	115.5
opponent	14.3	14.2		115.8	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.2	13.2	13.6	14.6	14.1
DAL	14.8	13.9	14.6	18.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	40	42	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.57	8	-7	15	13.9	14.2	-0.26	16.6	14.5	2.09
Khris Middleton	65	67	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.54	6	-5	11	14.2	14.0	0.20	14.5	17.3	-2.85
Grayson Allen	65	66	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.53	-3	4	-7	14.9	12.5	2.35	15.3	15.6	-0.24
Jrue Holiday	73	74	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.42	-5	6	-11	14.5	12.9	1.62	15.6	14.8	0.82
Pat Connaughton	50	54	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	-8	17	13.3	15.0	-1.76	16.0	14.8	1.21
Brook Lopez	61	63	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.29	-6	7	-13	13.9	14.5	-0.69	14.1	17.7	-3.54
Giannis Antetokounmpo	70	72	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	3	-5	14.1	14.0	0.14	15.6	14.9	0.77
Bobby Portis	33	33	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.12	1	0	1	14.3	14.0	0.35	15.8	15.2	0.52
Jevon Carter	23	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	4	-7	12.9	14.5	-1.62	16.5	15.1	1.43

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Powell	38	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.04	-2	1	-3	14.7	15.9	-1.23	16.0	12.8	3.15
Maxi Kleber	59	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-3	5	15.8	14.8	0.95	12.8	15.9	-3.12
Christian Wood	51	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.28	2	-3	5	15.4	15.5	-0.13	12.2	16.0	-3.83
Spencer Dinwiddie	63	63	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-2	3	15.7	14.9	0.78	15.1	12.3	2.79
Luka Doncic	75	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.43	6	-7	13	15.4	15.5	-0.06	14.4	13.2	1.25
Tim Hardaway Jr.	55	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-2	3	15.4	15.5	-0.07	15.2	12.7	2.51
Josh Green	56	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	11	-23	15.6	15.2	0.36	13.0	15.4	-2.38
Reggie Bullock	42	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	1	-3	14.8	15.9	-1.05	12.4	15.4	-3.03
Dorian Finney-Smith	56	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.43	-1	0	-1	15.6	15.2	0.44	15.5	12.3	3.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.69,0.41,0.34,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 91, VAN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.77,0.79,0.59,0.61,0.45,0.45,0.22,0.08,0	91.4%
IND 108, CHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.83,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.54,0.34,0.01,0	90.7%
MEM 98, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.84,0.87,0.71,0.6,0.39,0.37,0.22,0.26,0	90.6%