NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	121		Excitement	10.9 [47]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +115.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	120		Comeback	10.6 [144]		LVP	Josh Hart (POR): -24.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.78	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,0.78	-0.03	0.80	-0.01	21	47%	0.83	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.21,0.21	0.02	0.18	-0.01	6	54%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.2	0.11	0.11	0.02	12	77%	0.42	3	-0.21	2	100%	0.01
Bones Hyland	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	9	65%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	4	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vlatko Cancar	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.02
Bruce Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	56%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Nikola Jokic	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,-0.05,-0.2	0.02	-0.20	0.02	25	59%	-0.06	6	-0.14	6	67%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.35,0.44,0.69,1.15	1.15	0.31	0.84	-0.01	22	78%	1.18	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.09
Drew Eubanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	150%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.16	-0.09	0.02	10	100%	0.26	3	-0.21	1	100%	0.00
Shaedon Sharpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.03	15	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Trendon Watford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	2	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Anfernee Simons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.01	-0.01	-0.17	0.11	-0.05	12	25%	0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	-0.01	10	55%	-0.02	2	-0.23	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.5	27.3	14.5	29.4	2.5	29.0	131.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +19.5%

POR -17.7%

DEN +23.8%

DEN +11.2%

DEN +13.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.8	14.5	14.4	123.5	121.2	113.4
season	14.7	14.7		116.6	113.4
opponent	14.1	14.5		117.3	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	15.6	15.1	15.2	14.8
POR	12.8	15.7	14.2	15.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	72	73	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.39	16	-15	31	14.5	15.6	-1.10	14.6	14.0	0.59
Bones Hyland	51	50	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.04	19	-18	37	15.3	14.2	1.02	15.6	13.3	2.23
Christian Braun	41	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	-9	19	14.8	14.7	0.11	15.8	13.6	2.18
Jeff Green	36	36	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.09	14	-13	27	14.1	15.1	-0.99	15.2	14.1	1.13
DeAndre Jordan	29	28	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	-8	17	13.9	15.1	-1.18	15.1	14.2	0.83
Nikola Jokic	69	71	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.47	-8	9	-17	15.1	13.9	1.18	14.2	15.1	-0.83
Aaron Gordon	62	63	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.56	-13	14	-27	15.1	14.1	0.99	14.1	15.2	-1.13
Bruce Brown	58	60	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.42	-17	18	-35	14.5	15.1	-0.65	13.4	16.1	-2.60
Vlatko Cancar	15	16	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	6	-11	12.2	15.2	-3.03	13.2	14.7	-1.54
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	57	59	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.45	-20	21	-41	15.6	13.6	1.99	13.9	15.4	-1.51

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Johnson	1	2	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-2	3	4.0	14.6	-10.58	12.5	14.8	-2.31
Anfernee Simons	72	70	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	0	-1	14.6	14.1	0.55	14.9	14.5	0.37
Trendon Watford	17	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	3	-7	14.4	14.5	-0.15	13.7	15.0	-1.28
Josh Hart	75	76	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.43	10	-11	21	14.1	15.7	-1.57	15.0	14.0	0.99
Damian Lillard	76	77	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.48	11	-12	23	14.2	15.5	-1.31	14.9	14.4	0.49
Drew Eubanks	36	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	10	-21	15.3	14.0	1.31	13.8	15.3	-1.44
Jusuf Nurkic	63	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.56	10	-11	21	14.0	15.3	-1.31	15.3	13.8	1.44
Jerami Grant	79	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-6	11	14.3	15.1	-0.85	14.9	14.2	0.75
Shaedon Sharpe	30	29	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.05	-16	15	-31	15.7	13.9	1.81	13.6	15.2	-1.63
Justise Winslow	46	42	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.57	-10	9	-19	15.1	13.9	1.18	15.0	14.6	0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.81,0.73,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.54,0.55,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 89, CHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.33,0.27,0	91.3%
MEM 98, SEA 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.42,0	90.4%
DET 114, HOU 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.7,0.9,0.92,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.76,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.86,0.59,0	90.0%