NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	114		Excitement	9.3 [127]		MVP	Stanley Johnson (DET): +36.4%
Houston Rockets	109		Comeback	14.0 [28]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): -24.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stanley Johnson	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.36	0.06	0.28	-0.02	9	65%	0.39	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Boban Marjanovic	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.31,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.32,0.32	0.18	0.15	0.01	18	67%	0.32	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.00	12	61%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Ish Smith	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	17	56%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Bullock	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.02	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry Ellenson	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	16	44%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Andre Drummond	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	11	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Beno Udrih	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.28,0.43,0.43,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.08	-0.03	25	58%	0.35	1	-0.10	7	86%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.06	0.16	-0.00	6	81%	0.25	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	8	68%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	55%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	14	46%	0.07	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Troy Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chinanu Onuaku	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.11	-0.12	0.01	11	23%	-0.21	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	0.8	29.0	15.5	28.6	2.5	35.4	135.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +13.2%

HOU -6.6%

DET +16.6%

DET +32.4%

HOU -5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	HOU	NBA	DET	HOU	NBA
this game	15.4	13.1	14.8	112.9	107.9	107.7
season	15.0	13.7		105.0	113.2
opponent	14.9	15.1		108.1	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.4	16.1	15.3	14.6	15.4
HOU	12.8	12.7	12.9	14.2	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Bullock	53	52	1.03	-0.53	1.57	0.42	21	-16	37	15.3	15.4	-0.14	13.3	13.0	0.25
Stanley Johnson	67	67	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.32	20	-15	35	15.4	15.4	-0.02	12.9	13.7	-0.88
Boban Marjanovic	57	56	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.41	10	-5	15	15.9	14.7	1.17	12.8	13.6	-0.77
Henry Ellenson	52	54	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.50	-5	10	-15	16.0	14.7	1.23	12.9	13.4	-0.48
Beno Udrih	39	38	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.15	15	-10	25	15.3	15.4	-0.14	13.6	12.9	0.73
Ish Smith	62	63	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.50	-10	15	-25	15.4	15.3	0.14	12.9	13.6	-0.73
Tobias Harris	49	47	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.15	10	-5	15	14.7	16.0	-1.23	13.4	12.9	0.48
Andre Drummond	42	44	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.06	-5	10	-15	15.3	15.4	-0.14	13.7	12.7	1.07
Marcus Morris	36	35	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.04	-15	20	-35	14.7	15.8	-1.09	13.5	13.0	0.56
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	48	49	-0.53	1.03	-1.57	-0.06	-16	21	-37	15.4	15.3	0.14	13.0	13.3	-0.25

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Williams	44	45	0.41	-0.91	1.33	0.24	6	-11	17	12.1	14.0	-1.87	17.0	14.1	2.95
Nene	27	26	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.14	11	-16	27	12.3	13.5	-1.16	16.8	14.9	1.89
Chinanu Onuaku	19	18	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.10	0	-5	5	12.2	13.4	-1.22	15.7	15.3	0.37
Lou Williams	47	46	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.24	-7	2	-9	12.9	13.4	-0.56	15.4	15.4	0.01
Ryan Anderson	28	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-4	3	14.4	12.7	1.67	15.0	15.5	-0.55
James Harden	79	80	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.49	8	-13	21	12.7	14.6	-1.90	15.3	15.6	-0.26
Trevor Ariza	74	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.53	2	-7	9	13.2	13.0	0.20	15.3	15.6	-0.36
Montrezl Harrell	55	57	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.32	-16	11	-27	13.9	12.2	1.67	14.6	16.3	-1.69
Patrick Beverley	66	66	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.57	-8	3	-11	13.9	11.8	2.06	15.1	15.9	-0.75
Eric Gordon	66	66	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.29	-20	15	-35	13.3	12.9	0.36	14.8	16.3	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.7,0.9,0.92,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.76,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.86,0.59,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 103, CHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.96,0.85,0.73,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.58,0	91.1%
NYK 109, DEN 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.79,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.81,0.68,0.9,0	91.1%
MIA 101, NJN 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.89,0.78,0.71,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.78,0.86,0.95,0.94,0.58,0	90.3%