NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	107		Excitement	9.4 [133]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +54.5%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	3.6 [477]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -32.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.26	0.16	0.11	0.01	20	65%	0.33	1	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Daniel Gafford	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Goodwin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Anthony Gill	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.14,0	0.08	-0.08	0.00	22	60%	0.11	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Kristaps Porzingis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	18	46%	0.03	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.04
Will Barton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	8	28%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Deni Avdija	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	8	36%	-0.03	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.03
Corey Kispert	-0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21	-0.07	-0.12	0.03	9	26%	-0.19	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.55	0.55	0.27	0.29	0.01	22	73%	0.55	0	0.00	8	100%	0.10
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.04	0.15	0.00	12	48%	0.18	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.12	0.12	0.11	-0.02	-0.02	11	74%	0.21	2	-0.09	5	80%	-0.00
Jamal Cain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	53%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	54%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	6	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.26,-0.26,-0.31,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.33	-0.33	-0.20	-0.15	-0.03	18	30%	-0.15	5	-0.18	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.0	25.1	15.3	27.6	2.4	41.4	140.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.0%

MIA +23.0%

WAS -1.9%

WAS -0.2%

MIA +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	14.4	14.4	109.2	113.4	113.4
season	14.8	15.1		113.4	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.2		112.1	114.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.0	14.1	17.0	15.7	15.2
MIA	14.2	14.7	13.7	14.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gafford	14	14	0.32	-0.82	1.15	0.09	8	-11	19	12.9	15.5	-2.62	19.2	13.5	5.67
Anthony Gill	28	27	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.16	-1	-2	1	15.2	15.2	0.06	12.6	15.0	-2.40
Will Barton	34	34	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.09	4	-7	11	14.8	15.4	-0.54	14.8	14.1	0.71
Deni Avdija	62	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-1	-1	15.9	13.9	1.99	14.4	14.3	0.09
Jordan Goodwin	50	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-3	3	14.4	16.0	-1.66	15.5	13.2	2.27
Corey Kispert	73	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	6	-15	15.3	14.9	0.39	13.5	16.7	-3.19
Kyle Kuzma	79	81	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.43	-5	2	-7	14.7	17.3	-2.59	14.1	15.4	-1.29
Bradley Beal	76	75	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.59	-4	1	-5	15.6	13.7	1.86	14.4	14.3	0.06
Kristaps Porzingis	74	72	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.55	-6	3	-9	15.7	13.6	2.11	14.1	15.0	-0.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	80	81	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.49	13	-10	23	13.9	16.5	-2.56	15.3	14.7	0.57
Haywood Highsmith	66	67	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.51	4	-1	5	15.1	12.7	2.38	15.0	15.5	-0.41
Kyle Lowry	78	78	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.59	0	3	-3	14.8	12.4	2.48	15.4	14.4	0.91
Tyler Herro	80	80	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.28	8	-5	13	14.2	15.2	-1.06	14.7	17.3	-2.58
Bam Adebayo	70	72	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.47	1	2	-1	13.9	15.6	-1.71	15.5	14.2	1.28
Dewayne Dedmon	27	26	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.06	2	1	1	15.6	13.9	1.71	14.2	15.5	-1.28
Dru Smith	33	34	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	5	-7	13.4	14.9	-1.47	15.3	15.1	0.18
Nikola Jovic	31	31	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.10	-1	4	-5	12.7	15.1	-2.38	15.5	15.0	0.41
Jamal Cain	20	21	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.09	-10	13	-23	16.6	13.8	2.82	15.7	15.0	0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.53,0.55,0.32,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.57,1	90.7%
ATL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.58,1	90.4%
POR 91, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.74,1	90.4%