NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	11.4 [36]		MVP	Corey Kispert (WAS): +24.2%
Washington Wizards	107		Comeback	23.2 [80]		LVP	Max Strus (MIA): -34.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jovic	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.00	0.01	10	60%	0.09	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Haywood Highsmith	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.13,-0.04,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.09	0.17	-0.01	17	33%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Jamal Cain	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	-0.02	23	46%	-0.01	3	-0.10	6	67%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.06	-0.13	0.01	12	43%	-0.09	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Orlando Robinson	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.2	0.05	-0.25	0.00	10	61%	-0.01	1	-0.19	3	67%	-0.02
Max Strus	-0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.34	-0.01	-0.34	-0.01	24	43%	-0.31	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.17	0.07	0.00	9	94%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.00	11	59%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.04	-0.10	0.02	18	67%	0.28	7	-0.36	4	100%	0.03
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	20	43%	-0.08	1	-0.01	7	71%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	24	41%	-0.01	4	-0.15	3	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.6	2.4	27.4	15.4	27.6	2.4	31.2	1.7	18.2	150.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +71.1%

MIA -15.2%

MIA -21.9%

MIA -8.7%

WAS +24.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.1	14.2	14.4	97.2	99.1	113.4
season	15.1	14.8		111.9	113.4
opponent	14.2	14.6		114.6	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	14.3	13.2	15.2	17.4	16.7	15.1
WAS	12.4	16.2	13.0	15.3	15.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	64	59	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.03	6	-7	13	14.6	15.7	-1.05	15.4	12.8	2.55
Jamal Cain	38	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	4	-9	13.8	15.7	-1.93	13.1	14.9	-1.84
Kyle Lowry	104	103	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.44	4	-5	9	15.2	12.2	3.01	14.3	13.0	1.29
Haywood Highsmith	85	86	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	1	-3	15.4	14.0	1.38	13.8	15.8	-1.99
Caleb Martin	95	93	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-2	3	15.2	14.5	0.66	14.7	11.3	3.37
Orlando Robinson	65	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.54	-2	1	-3	15.1	15.1	-0.03	14.0	14.6	-0.61
Max Strus	94	92	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.43	-7	6	-13	15.4	13.2	2.17	14.0	15.6	-1.56

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	32	32	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.67	12	-11	23	14.4	14.1	0.29	16.1	14.7	1.40
Bradley Beal	100	100	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.40	10	-9	19	13.8	19.4	-5.55	15.2	13.1	2.14
Kyle Kuzma	83	83	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.51	1	0	1	14.5	13.2	1.29	15.1	15.0	0.15
Kristaps Porzingis	80	82	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	3	-5	13.8	15.6	-1.81	15.3	14.5	0.74
Corey Kispert	68	69	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	-6	13	13.5	15.4	-1.94	15.3	14.7	0.51
Monte Morris	54	56	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.05	1	0	1	13.9	14.5	-0.57	15.0	15.1	-0.11
Deni Avdija	29	31	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	4	-7	14.3	14.2	0.06	15.1	15.1	0.03
Daniel Gafford	8	9	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.08	-9	10	-19	19.4	13.8	5.55	13.1	15.2	-2.14
Rui Hachimura	59	57	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.13	-2	3	-5	14.7	13.7	0.98	14.5	15.7	-1.26
Will Barton	17	17	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.04	-11	12	-23	16.3	13.8	2.45	12.7	15.5	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.43,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.24,0.04,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 122, PHX 129	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.25,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.43,0.27,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.15,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.73,1	90.1%
DAL 102, HOU 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.11,0.19,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.41,0.2,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.46,0.68,0.84,0.84,0.98,1	89.5%
CHI 95, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.16,0.29,0.23,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.3,0.38,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.54,0.45,0.36,0.22,0.28,0.54,0.31,0.55,0.68,0.91,1	88.8%