NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	122		Excitement	8.4 [272]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +42.7%
Boston Celtics	126		Comeback	13.3 [404]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -18.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15	0.11	0.06	0.03	26	61%	0.28	4	-0.14	9	100%	0.06
Jalen Williams	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	9	74%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Aleksej Pokusevski	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	12	67%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	6	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,0.06,-0.02,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	18	51%	0.08	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.02
Isaiah Joe	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	20%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Josh Giddey	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	17	43%	0.02	7	-0.18	3	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.39,0.43	0.43	0.11	0.31	-0.01	12	73%	0.48	3	-0.06	6	83%	-0.01
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	9	73%	0.18	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.10	0.00	23	48%	0.15	1	-0.03	10	80%	-0.01
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	8	62%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luke Kornet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	12	48%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.03	-0.12	0.04	21	54%	-0.06	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.6	28.6	14.7	24.8	1.8	36.5	134.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +45.9%

OKC -13.3%

OKC -1.0%

BOS +21.6%

OKC -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	BOS	NBA	OKC	BOS	NBA
this game	12.2	13.3	14.4	107.0	112.5	113.4
season	13.7	14.5		113.5	116.3
opponent	14.6	14.5		110.6	112.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	11.4	12.2	12.2	13.0	12.2
BOS	13.9	13.5	13.5	12.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylin Williams	20	20	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-4	4	12.7	12.1	0.59	12.3	13.5	-1.20
Aaron Wiggins	34	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.16	-8	4	-12	11.7	12.4	-0.72	12.8	13.5	-0.71
Aleksej Pokusevski	87	86	-0.08	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-9	14	11.8	13.5	-1.71	13.8	11.5	2.33
Josh Giddey	80	81	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.29	6	-10	16	11.8	13.1	-1.21	12.8	14.6	-1.88
Isaiah Joe	19	19	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-2	0	12.1	12.2	-0.13	12.3	13.5	-1.23
Kenrich Williams	44	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	3	-10	13.5	11.4	2.17	13.1	13.4	-0.36
Luguentz Dort	83	81	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.48	5	-9	14	12.3	11.9	0.38	13.7	12.2	1.55
Jalen Williams	85	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-1	-2	12.2	12.2	0.00	13.4	13.0	0.39
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	85	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	12.0	12.8	-0.83	13.7	12.1	1.62
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	33	31	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	9	-22	12.9	11.9	1.03	12.7	13.5	-0.80

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	78	80	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.30	21	-17	38	12.9	14.1	-1.11	11.9	12.9	-0.92
Jaylen Brown	96	97	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.43	6	-2	8	13.3	13.2	0.11	12.2	12.2	-0.03
Jayson Tatum	88	89	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.47	2	2	0	13.3	13.2	0.05	12.3	12.0	0.27
Al Horford	75	77	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.47	-1	5	-6	13.5	12.8	0.67	12.2	12.1	0.11
Marcus Smart	67	70	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.59	-11	15	-26	13.4	13.1	0.33	12.6	11.6	0.97
Luke Kornet	12	11	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	-3	10	13.9	13.2	0.71	12.6	12.2	0.47
Sam Hauser	38	39	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.11	3	1	2	13.0	13.4	-0.39	12.5	12.0	0.50
Payton Pritchard	32	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.15	4	0	4	13.5	13.2	0.26	12.9	11.9	0.97
Noah Vonleh	3	4	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	11	-18	15.0	13.2	1.76	11.5	12.2	-0.74
Grant Williams	71	71	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.09	-4	8	-12	13.1	13.5	-0.40	11.5	13.3	-1.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.72,0.57,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 99, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.26,0.46,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.45,0.84,1	91.8%
UTA 94, OKC 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.35,0.27,0.53,0.64,0.32,0.92,1	91.4%
PHI 98, WAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.22,0.33,0.17,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.94,0.99,1	91.2%