NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	122		Excitement	8.7 [227]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +31.1%
Indiana Pacers	119		Comeback	22.1 [152]		LVP	Aaron Nesmith (IND): -14.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.14,0.31	0.08	0.16	-0.07	20	56%	0.33	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.11	0.00	14	61%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.01	7	94%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
DeAndre Jordan	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.08	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	13	52%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Aaron Gordon	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	8	72%	0.11	5	-0.13	9	78%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	15	51%	0.04	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Bruce Brown	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	-0.02	-0.02	17	75%	0.24	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.05
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.00	7	85%	0.16	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.07	-0.03	6	62%	0.12	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0.06	0.06	0.12	-0.03	0.03	15	70%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	16	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	11	52%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	9	33%	-0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.8	29.3	15.4	29.3	1.8	29.4	133.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.1%

DEN +18.7%

DEN +21.4%

IND -18.6%

DEN +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	13.7	12.4	14.4	110.9	108.2	113.4
season	14.7	13.7		116.6	113.3
opponent	14.4	14.5		116.4	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.1	15.6	13.0	14.5	13.7
IND	11.4	12.6	12.7	13.2	12.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	47	47	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.48	11	-8	19	14.0	13.6	0.40	12.4	12.4	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	82	79	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.42	4	-1	5	13.6	14.1	-0.56	12.3	12.9	-0.62
Jamal Murray	70	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	6	-9	14.0	13.3	0.67	11.8	13.4	-1.58
Bones Hyland	63	65	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	4	-5	14.1	13.2	0.86	13.2	11.3	1.85
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	75	75	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	-6	15	13.0	15.2	-2.20	12.1	13.0	-0.88
Michael Porter Jr.	84	82	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.51	-8	11	-19	14.2	12.2	2.01	12.3	12.9	-0.62
Bruce Brown	49	51	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	-3	9	13.2	14.2	-1.02	12.7	12.2	0.52
DeAndre Jordan	38	39	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.06	-1	4	-5	14.3	13.4	0.86	12.6	12.3	0.25
Jeff Green	42	44	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.07	-2	5	-7	13.2	14.0	-0.79	12.9	12.1	0.73

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oshae Brissett	27	26	0.45	-0.95	1.40	-0.16	21	-24	45	11.6	12.7	-1.06	15.9	13.1	2.83
Isaiah Jackson	42	40	0.20	-0.70	0.91	0.06	5	-8	13	12.7	12.3	0.43	12.8	14.2	-1.38
Aaron Nesmith	50	50	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.09	2	-5	7	13.1	11.8	1.27	13.5	13.9	-0.34
Goga Bitadze	15	15	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	1	-5	13.0	12.3	0.66	13.9	13.7	0.16
T.J. McConnell	37	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-5	7	13.1	12.1	0.94	13.6	13.8	-0.20
Bennedict Mathurin	56	56	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.28	5	-8	13	12.6	12.3	0.26	13.5	14.0	-0.54
Jalen Smith	43	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	3	-9	11.7	12.9	-1.16	13.7	13.7	-0.04
Andrew Nembhard	68	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.18	-12	9	-21	12.3	12.6	-0.27	13.5	14.1	-0.60
Myles Turner	58	59	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.53	-4	1	-5	12.3	12.6	-0.36	14.1	13.3	0.81
Tyrese Haliburton	77	77	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	8	-19	12.3	12.7	-0.34	13.8	13.6	0.17
Buddy Hield	77	79	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.37	-13	10	-23	12.3	12.7	-0.34	13.7	13.8	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.84,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 87, GSW 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.05,0	91.1%
LAL 96, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.84,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.66,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.15,0	90.0%
LAC 118, LAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.86,0.87,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.69,0.6,0.4,0.19,0.22,0.06,0,0	89.6%