NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	100		Excitement	7.5 [419]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +38.9%
Washington Wizards	102		Comeback	1.7 [792]		LVP	Alex Caruso (CHI): -12.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.16	0.05	0.12	0.01	23	56%	0.21	3	-0.05	11	91%	0.09
Coby White	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	6	62%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Goran Dragic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0	0.10	-0.07	0.03	14	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	12	100%	0.07
Andre Drummond	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	71%	0.12	3	-0.12	2	0%	-0.03
Patrick Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ayo Dosunmu	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Javonte Green	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	4	30%	-0.04	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.39	0.39	0.01	0.35	-0.02	14	68%	0.58	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.06	-0.01	16	67%	0.24	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	13	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	9	55%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	24.5	15.4	30.3	1.8	35.9	134.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +99.5%

CHI -21.2%

CHI -12.2%

CHI -16.7%

WAS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	14.0	15.1	14.4	102.0	102.0	113.4
season	14.1	14.8		112.0	113.4
opponent	14.2	14.9		114.6	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.7	15.0	14.4	12.7	14.0
WAS	16.3	13.8	15.0	15.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	46	45	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.35	22	-24	46	14.1	13.8	0.24	16.8	13.8	3.01
Javonte Green	30	30	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.06	2	-4	6	13.5	14.2	-0.66	16.9	14.4	2.54
Andre Drummond	35	38	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.17	8	-10	18	14.2	13.8	0.37	15.7	14.8	0.95
Coby White	61	65	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.52	17	-19	36	13.6	14.5	-0.89	15.7	14.1	1.64
DeMar DeRozan	75	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-3	4	13.7	14.7	-1.02	15.2	14.9	0.27
Alex Caruso	65	65	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.24	-8	6	-14	14.7	12.5	2.13	14.4	16.5	-2.10
Nikola Vucevic	63	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.27	-10	8	-18	13.8	14.2	-0.37	14.8	15.7	-0.95
Patrick Williams	49	49	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.11	-23	21	-44	14.5	13.4	1.14	14.1	16.1	-1.92
Ayo Dosunmu	66	70	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.26	-19	17	-36	13.5	14.8	-1.31	14.1	17.6	-3.54

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deni Avdija	48	48	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.24	16	-14	30	14.0	16.2	-2.23	14.5	13.4	1.14
Bradley Beal	76	75	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	-2	6	15.1	15.1	-0.01	13.6	15.1	-1.53
Kyle Kuzma	71	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.36	6	-4	10	14.7	16.1	-1.34	14.1	13.6	0.56
Kristaps Porzingis	59	60	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.00	17	-15	32	14.7	15.8	-1.08	13.9	14.0	-0.02
Anthony Gill	23	21	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.35	2	0	2	15.4	15.0	0.35	14.0	13.9	0.11
Monte Morris	53	55	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.15	5	-3	8	15.5	14.7	0.71	14.1	13.7	0.42
Delon Wright	47	43	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.29	-3	5	-8	14.7	15.5	-0.71	13.7	14.1	-0.42
Will Barton	36	35	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.10	-5	7	-12	15.3	15.0	0.29	13.5	14.2	-0.65
Rui Hachimura	51	47	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.24	-17	19	-36	16.0	14.2	1.88	13.7	14.2	-0.53
Daniel Gafford	36	35	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.06	-15	17	-32	16.5	14.3	2.16	14.4	13.7	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 88, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.42,0.63,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.94,0.83,1	92.5%
MIL 86, NJN 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.53,0.64,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.67,0.79,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.88,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	91.9%
WAS 98, MIN 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.74,0.68,0.54,0.65,0.79,0.75,0.63,0.74,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	91.9%