NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	88		Excitement	7.3 [329]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (POR): +14.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	92		Comeback	1.5 [852]		LVP	Damien Wilkins (SEA): -15.3%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	10	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.04
Kevin Durant	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	15	53%	0.15	4	-0.13	8	75%	-0.01
Johan Petro	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Swift	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Nick Collison	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	11	46%	-0.04	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Earl Watson	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	13	56%	0.06	5	-0.18	1	0%	-0.02
Damien Wilkins	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	11	30%	-0.13	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	10	58%	0.17	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	-0.00	2	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	16	50%	0.11	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	16	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	41%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	17	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	9	44%	-0.07
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	33.0	18.8	30.1	3.5	42.6	158.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +25.9%

POR +16.5%

SEA -13.7%

POR +16.3%

POR +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	POR	NBA	SEA	POR	NBA
this game	13.8	16.9	15.4	93.6	97.9	105.7
season	14.5	16.7		99.1	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.0		106.1	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.3	16.9	12.2	13.0	13.8
POR	16.0	16.6	17.3	17.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	28	28	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.14	-2	-2	0	12.5	14.3	-1.83	16.6	17.0	-0.35
Robert Swift	8	9	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-5	6	11.6	14.0	-2.36	14.2	17.1	-2.91
Earl Watson	68	69	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.38	12	-16	28	12.9	16.2	-3.38	16.8	16.9	-0.09
Johan Petro	45	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-1	-2	14.8	12.9	1.86	17.3	16.5	0.80
Mickael Gelabale	19	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	4	-12	17.1	13.0	4.09	19.5	16.3	3.20
Damien Wilkins	47	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-3	2	14.1	13.5	0.60	17.6	16.1	1.45
Jeff Green	75	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-3	2	13.3	15.8	-2.51	16.6	17.9	-1.35
Kevin Durant	74	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-2	0	13.3	15.4	-2.11	16.5	18.2	-1.71
Luke Ridnour	33	33	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.04	-15	11	-26	15.8	12.7	3.13	17.4	16.6	0.84
Nick Collison	73	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.53	-1	-3	2	13.8	13.7	0.09	16.3	18.5	-2.15

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	71	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-6	16	17.0	16.4	0.61	13.9	13.4	0.47
Travis Outlaw	48	49	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	-4	12	18.1	15.5	2.60	14.5	13.0	1.51
Brandon Roy	76	76	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.36	2	2	0	16.3	19.0	-2.66	13.2	16.3	-3.08
Steve Blake	72	71	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.33	2	2	0	16.2	19.0	-2.86	13.5	14.7	-1.20
Joel Przybilla	61	60	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.41	-2	6	-8	17.4	15.9	1.45	13.9	13.5	0.45
LaMarcus Aldridge	70	70	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	3	-2	16.5	17.9	-1.37	13.3	15.2	-1.96
Raef LaFrentz	6	5	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	0	4	6.5	17.6	-11.06	12.8	13.8	-1.04
Sergio Rodriguez	13	14	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	2	0	18.7	16.6	2.14	17.6	13.1	4.45
Martell Webster	50	50	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.18	-4	8	-12	17.9	15.7	2.24	13.9	13.7	0.20
Channing Frye	3	4	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	7	-10	15.0	16.9	-1.91	12.5	13.8	-1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.42,0.63,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.94,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 85, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.72,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.79,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	92.6%
SAC 94, LAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.81,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	92.4%
HOU 82, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.3%