NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	8.7 [178]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +31.2%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	4.8 [316]		LVP	De'Andre Hunter (ATL): -19.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25	0.12	0.12	-0.01	18	60%	0.25	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Clint Capela	0.13	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	11	68%	0.13	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Kevin Huerter	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	11	62%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Onyeka Okongwu	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.00	0.10	-0.01	4	75%	0.17	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.13,-0.04,0.07,-0.05	0.06	-0.10	0.00	23	65%	0.26	7	-0.31	8	100%	0.06
Danilo Gallinari	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	9	39%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.31	0.31	0.10	0.21	0.01	14	63%	0.34	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.2,0.23	0.23	0.04	0.16	-0.03	12	58%	0.28	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.09	0.01	10	76%	0.23	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.03
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	7	79%	0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.12	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	0.01	7	53%	0.04	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.07	-0.02	10	62%	0.08	4	-0.10	12	83%	-0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	0.2	31.2	14.6	27.5	1.7	31.2	129.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +52.9%

MIA +3.7%

ATL -10.5%

MIA +2.8%

MIA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	13.8	14.5	112.4	116.5	110.8
season	14.6	14.9		114.3	112.0
opponent	14.9	14.5		107.6	113.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.8	15.2	16.2	16.7	15.9
MIA	13.0	13.6	14.4	14.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Andre Hunter	51	53	0.62	-1.12	1.74	0.15	16	-20	36	15.7	16.2	-0.53	13.8	13.7	0.17
Delon Wright	43	43	0.38	-0.88	1.25	0.17	7	-11	18	15.7	16.1	-0.39	13.9	13.7	0.24
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	28	28	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.19	-3	-1	-2	16.3	15.8	0.57	15.2	13.2	2.03
Onyeka Okongwu	43	42	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.22	-4	0	-4	16.2	15.7	0.52	13.8	13.7	0.11
Bogdan Bogdanovic	74	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.43	4	-8	12	15.3	17.8	-2.50	13.6	14.3	-0.69
Clint Capela	54	54	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.59	0	-4	4	15.7	16.2	-0.52	14.0	13.5	0.43
Kevin Huerter	62	62	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.54	-10	6	-16	16.0	15.9	0.09	13.3	14.7	-1.38
Trae Young	73	73	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.60	-12	8	-20	15.7	16.5	-0.77	13.6	14.4	-0.86
Danilo Gallinari	57	57	-1.02	0.52	-1.54	-0.49	-18	14	-32	17.1	14.2	2.84	13.7	13.9	-0.17

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Max Strus	55	56	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.41	12	-8	20	13.4	14.2	-0.82	16.5	15.1	1.46
Bam Adebayo	65	65	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.48	6	-2	8	13.4	14.6	-1.22	16.6	14.5	2.07
Kyle Lowry	63	62	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.55	2	2	0	13.5	14.3	-0.80	16.3	15.2	1.17
Tyler Herro	67	68	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.36	3	1	2	13.6	14.1	-0.47	15.2	17.6	-2.38
Caleb Martin	56	54	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.13	10	-6	16	12.7	15.3	-2.59	16.1	15.7	0.35
Jimmy Butler	73	73	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.42	-3	7	-10	14.4	11.8	2.58	16.3	14.7	1.55
Gabe Vincent	34	35	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.17	2	2	0	14.3	13.5	0.80	15.2	16.3	-1.17
Dewayne Dedmon	32	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.10	-2	6	-8	14.6	13.4	1.22	14.5	16.6	-2.07
Duncan Robinson	40	40	-0.47	0.97	-1.43	-0.17	-10	14	-24	14.9	13.0	1.87	15.3	16.3	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.57,0.43,0.23,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.31,0.22,0.45,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.23,0.45,0.42,1	91.8%
NOP 93, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.43,0.27,1	90.9%
CLE 88, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.21,0.33,0.42,1	90.8%