NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	88		Excitement	8.4 [197]		MVP	Milt Palacio (CLE): +10.8%
Detroit Pistons	89		Comeback	4.1 [465]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -47.9%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Milt Palacio	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	0.00	4	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	8	72%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Mihm	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	24	47%	0.02	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Smush Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	1	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Darius Miles	-0.38	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.38	-0.10	-0.27	0.01	18	39%	-0.28	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.48	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.48	0.01	-0.46	0.03	14	69%	-0.27	5	-0.21	4	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.01	9	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	5	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,0	0.00	-0.05	0.06	0.02	8	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.15
Michael Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	6	38%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	13	48%	-0.04	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Mehmet Okur	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	9	35%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.10
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.02	20	38%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	24.0	16.0	26.2	2.4	33.4	129.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +23.2%

DET +18.2%

CLE -39.0%

DET +40.3%

DET +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DET	NBA	CLE	DET	NBA
this game	16.9	16.8	15.5	102.3	104.7	101.6
season	15.1	16.8		94.6	101.7
opponent	15.6	14.9		97.8	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.1	15.7	17.6	20.9	16.9
DET	18.6	15.7	16.7	15.9	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	74	73	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.06	6	-7	13	16.9	17.2	-0.37	17.3	13.2	4.18
Chris Mihm	37	36	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	2	-5	17.2	16.8	0.41	16.1	17.3	-1.21
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	62	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.48	11	-12	23	16.6	17.7	-1.08	17.7	14.4	3.31
DeSagana Diop	16	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	6	-13	15.9	17.2	-1.30	13.7	17.4	-3.70
Darius Miles	86	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	16.9	0.0	16.93	16.8	0.0	16.75
Ricky Davis	82	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	1	-3	17.0	16.5	0.45	16.7	17.3	-0.60
Carlos Boozer	57	57	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.54	-3	2	-5	17.4	16.0	1.40	17.0	16.2	0.86
Smush Parker	16	15	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.54	-6	5	-11	17.1	16.9	0.16	14.0	17.3	-3.34

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clifford Robinson	75	75	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.54	5	-4	9	16.5	18.7	-2.21	17.1	16.0	1.07
Mehmet Okur	54	55	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.62	-1	2	-3	17.9	14.7	3.22	16.4	17.8	-1.42
Chauncey Billups	58	60	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.60	-2	3	-5	17.2	15.9	1.27	16.9	17.0	-0.16
Michael Curry	33	32	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.63	-4	5	-9	18.6	15.6	3.08	15.4	17.9	-2.48
Richard Hamilton	58	58	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.20	2	-1	3	16.8	16.7	0.02	16.9	17.0	-0.10
Tayshaun Prince	41	43	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.17	-2	3	-5	15.7	17.7	-2.07	17.4	16.5	0.88
Corliss Williamson	53	54	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.16	5	-4	9	15.3	19.2	-3.90	17.9	15.4	2.48
Chucky Atkins	27	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.13	3	-2	5	15.9	17.2	-1.27	17.0	16.9	0.16
Jon Barry	26	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.11	-1	2	-3	17.3	16.5	0.85	17.0	16.9	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.21,0.33,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.23,0.45,0.42,1	92.4%
POR 93, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.21,0.17,0.58,1	91.9%
ATL 99, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.55,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.43,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.58,1	91.1%