NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	9.6 [95]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +83.3%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	8.9 [100]		LVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): -18.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.83	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.83	0.10	0.73	-0.00	5	69%	0.83	0	0.00	6	100%	0.07
Al Horford	0.28	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.28	0.08	0.19	-0.01	15	60%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.01	0.00	5	100%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	7	62%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.11	0.05	-0.04	13	36%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Elton Brand	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Teague	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.13	0.02	-0.12	0.02	18	55%	-0.02	3	-0.11	8	75%	0.03
Paul Millsap	-0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.01	12	32%	-0.12	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.64	0.64	-0.04	0.68	0.00	16	48%	0.72	3	-0.08	10	60%	-0.04
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.17,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.14	0.00	4	109%	0.30	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.14	0.01	14	59%	0.23	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Victor Oladipo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.02,0.02,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.15	-0.01	9	75%	0.28	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.05
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	13	69%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	7	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	7	31%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	24.4	16.5	29.4	2.7	39.4	137.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +51.6%

ATL -2.0%

ORL +0.8%

ATL -5.3%

ORL +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.5	15.1	106.5	108.7	104.2
season	14.9	14.9		106.7	100.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.9	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.7	15.1	17.9	14.1	15.7
ORL	12.6	17.0	15.6	17.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Scott	32	33	0.71	-1.21	1.92	0.62	3	-4	7	15.9	15.6	0.30	14.8	15.8	-1.04
Kyle Korver	59	62	0.34	-0.84	1.17	0.13	7	-8	15	15.4	16.2	-0.83	16.0	14.3	1.72
Jeff Teague	63	63	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.12	4	-5	9	15.4	16.2	-0.82	15.5	15.4	0.06
Elton Brand	28	25	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-5	9	16.4	15.4	0.97	12.9	16.4	-3.48
Dennis Schroder	36	35	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.10	0	-1	1	16.1	15.4	0.62	15.1	15.7	-0.55
Paul Millsap	61	60	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.56	-1	0	-1	15.6	15.9	-0.30	15.6	15.2	0.46
Kent Bazemore	33	31	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.52	-3	2	-5	15.3	15.9	-0.58	18.4	14.0	4.42
Al Horford	65	67	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.48	-5	4	-9	15.4	16.4	-0.97	16.4	12.9	3.48
Thabo Sefolosha	22	20	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.69	-3	2	-5	16.4	15.5	0.90	12.6	16.2	-3.59
DeMarre Carroll	66	64	-1.42	0.92	-2.33	-1.09	-11	10	-21	16.0	15.0	0.95	14.7	17.1	-2.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	76	75	1.22	-0.72	1.94	1.01	7	-6	13	16.5	10.5	6.00	15.6	16.1	-0.54
Nikola Vucevic	66	68	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.50	9	-8	17	15.7	14.9	0.80	15.5	16.2	-0.66
Evan Fournier	75	74	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.48	5	-4	9	15.6	14.9	0.70	15.7	15.6	0.06
Victor Oladipo	69	70	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.44	6	-5	11	16.0	13.7	2.29	15.1	17.3	-2.22
Tobias Harris	74	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.54	-1	2	-3	15.3	16.2	-0.95	15.7	15.7	-0.06
Dewayne Dedmon	15	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	3	-5	11.5	16.2	-4.69	16.2	15.6	0.63
Ben Gordon	26	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	3	-5	13.3	16.3	-3.05	16.1	15.5	0.66
Kyle O'Quinn	19	22	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.04	-9	10	-19	17.0	15.1	1.95	16.1	15.5	0.60
Elfrid Payton	40	40	-0.85	1.35	-2.21	-0.62	-8	9	-17	14.4	16.3	-1.91	16.4	15.2	1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.55,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.43,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 95, BKN 98	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.41,0.73,1	92.5%
WAS 94, HOU 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.37,0.43,0.59,1	92.4%
POR 93, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.21,0.17,0.58,1	92.2%