NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	113		Excitement	8.6 [186]		MVP	Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL): +46.5%
Dallas Mavericks	114		Comeback	14.5 [183]		LVP	Domantas Sabonis (SAC): -9.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0.32	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.32	0.24	0.10	0.02	31	65%	0.37	1	-0.05	6	83%	-0.10
Trey Lyles	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	8	65%	0.10	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Chimezie Metu	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Davion Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	9	22%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.09,0.09,-0.04	-0.03	-0.05	-0.04	10	48%	-0.00	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	8	47%	0.02	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Justin Holiday	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.03	12	37%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	10	60%	0.02	4	-0.11	5	20%	-0.09

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.47	0.47	0.09	0.38	0.00	13	65%	0.48	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.19	0.00	22	63%	0.41	5	-0.12	13	92%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.02	15	66%	0.12	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	5	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Trey Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Ntilikina	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	5	55%	-0.01	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.4	30.1	15.7	29.7	1.8	36.9	142.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +42.9%

DAL +7.8%

SAC -5.4%

DAL +12.0%

SAC -7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.3	15.1	14.5	115.3	116.3	110.8
season	14.0	15.6		109.2	112.4
opponent	14.5	14.6		109.2	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.3	14.6	15.3	15.0	14.3
DAL	16.5	13.1	14.7	16.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Lyles	34	36	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.05	11	-12	23	13.3	14.8	-1.55	17.7	13.5	4.22
Richaun Holmes	36	35	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.20	0	-1	1	14.2	14.4	-0.22	12.6	16.5	-3.86
Chimezie Metu	21	21	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	5	-11	14.3	14.3	-0.03	14.4	15.3	-0.83
De'Aaron Fox	83	84	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.43	6	-7	13	13.8	17.0	-3.18	15.0	15.7	-0.74
Justin Holiday	60	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.43	5	-6	11	13.5	15.5	-1.95	15.6	14.2	1.42
Harrison Barnes	77	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.43	5	-6	11	14.3	14.3	0.03	15.3	14.4	0.83
Domantas Sabonis	60	62	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.54	1	-2	3	14.8	13.6	1.23	16.6	12.5	4.08
Davion Mitchell	49	46	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.18	-18	17	-35	15.5	13.1	2.37	13.5	16.5	-3.02
Donte DiVincenzo	70	69	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.45	-9	8	-17	14.9	12.9	1.93	14.3	16.9	-2.58

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Dinwiddie	72	73	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.54	4	-3	7	15.4	14.3	1.11	14.0	15.3	-1.31
Jalen Brunson	77	75	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.51	2	-1	3	14.5	17.2	-2.68	14.5	13.6	0.91
Josh Green	61	61	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.42	5	-4	9	14.1	16.6	-2.52	14.2	14.5	-0.29
Reggie Bullock	86	85	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.50	2	-1	3	15.1	15.0	0.09	14.1	15.8	-1.69
Dorian Finney-Smith	66	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.60	-5	6	-11	16.7	11.8	4.90	14.1	14.7	-0.66
Sterling Brown	18	19	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	-1	3	12.9	15.6	-2.62	15.3	14.1	1.19
Davis Bertans	34	33	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.08	2	-1	3	11.6	16.9	-5.35	13.8	14.6	-0.78
Frank Ntilikina	15	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	1	-1	14.3	15.2	-0.96	16.6	13.9	2.70
Trey Burke	7	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	3	-5	17.4	14.9	2.53	13.6	14.4	-0.83
Dwight Powell	54	55	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.04	-5	6	-11	17.4	12.2	5.26	14.6	13.9	0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.26,0.4,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.15,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 103, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.22,0.34,0.38,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.42,1	91.5%
SAS 104, ORL 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.05,1	90.4%
TOR 97, NOP 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.37,0.21,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.42,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.42,1	90.4%