NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	112		Excitement	9.9 [74]		MVP	Jerami Grant (DET): +56.0%
Boston Celtics	111		Comeback	20.9 [32]		LVP	Cade Cunningham (DET): -39.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0.56	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.34,0.56	0.18	0.38	0.00	13	80%	0.59	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Saddiq Bey	0.36	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.36	0.15	0.21	-0.00	13	71%	0.36	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	8	83%	0.20	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Rodney McGruder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Bagley III	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	40%	0.03	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Isaiah Stewart	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.07	0.06	-0.10	0.02	10	60%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hamidou Diallo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Cory Joseph	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.09	-0.03	-0.10	-0.04	4	62%	0.09	3	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Cade Cunningham	-0.40	0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.27,-0.4	-0.11	-0.29	-0.00	22	43%	-0.10	5	-0.29	2	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.52	0.52	0.12	0.40	0.01	10	86%	0.57	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.12	0.17	0.00	11	74%	0.32	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.09	0.09	0.15	-0.05	0.01	21	66%	0.16	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Daniel Theis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.07,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.17	-0.04	15	61%	-0.03	7	-0.14	6	100%	0.04
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.07	-0.24	-0.01	10	37%	-0.12	2	-0.18	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.3	28.5	14.7	24.3	2.6	33.0	130.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -2.6%

BOS -1.3%

DET +69.2%

BOS -19.1%

DET +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	14.8	13.9	14.5	113.1	108.8	110.8
season	14.6	14.9		105.0	112.2
opponent	14.7	14.4		105.7	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.7	15.3	12.4	15.8	14.8
BOS	13.2	12.0	15.8	14.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	62	63	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.70	7	-6	13	14.0	16.1	-2.18	14.6	12.8	1.75
Jerami Grant	61	62	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.69	5	-4	9	13.8	16.4	-2.60	14.6	12.9	1.69
Isaiah Stewart	62	62	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.71	4	-3	7	13.8	16.4	-2.57	14.8	12.6	2.18
Saddiq Bey	70	74	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.57	4	-3	7	14.0	16.6	-2.62	14.0	13.6	0.46
Cade Cunningham	77	78	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	0	1	14.3	16.4	-2.11	14.1	13.1	1.02
Rodney McGruder	14	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	1	-1	15.0	14.7	0.27	11.9	14.2	-2.31
Kelly Olynyk	35	36	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.10	-2	3	-5	16.2	14.0	2.26	12.5	14.7	-2.12
Hamidou Diallo	32	33	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.04	-5	6	-11	17.2	13.6	3.58	13.0	14.3	-1.38
Marvin Bagley III	45	47	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.19	-3	4	-7	16.5	13.3	3.20	13.8	14.0	-0.13
Killian Hayes	37	40	-0.56	1.06	-1.61	-0.38	-6	7	-13	16.1	14.0	2.18	12.6	14.7	-2.10

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Nesmith	46	45	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.13	11	-12	23	13.0	14.6	-1.56	15.9	13.8	2.10
Daniel Theis	33	32	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-4	7	13.3	14.2	-0.93	16.2	14.1	2.10
Payton Pritchard	31	30	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-2	3	12.8	14.4	-1.62	15.0	14.7	0.38
Derrick White	77	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	1	-3	14.2	13.0	1.14	14.4	15.8	-1.38
Jayson Tatum	81	81	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	14.2	12.9	1.26	15.0	13.8	1.21
Al Horford	72	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	2	-5	14.3	13.0	1.23	14.2	16.0	-1.77
Jaylen Brown	81	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.41	-4	3	-7	14.0	13.3	0.72	14.4	16.3	-1.93
Grant Williams	89	86	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.40	-10	9	-19	14.1	12.8	1.30	14.4	16.9	-2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.38,0.24,0.58,0.73,0.78,0.9,0.95,0.79,0.76,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, ATL 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.49,0.46,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.78,0.86,0.72,0.75,0.42,0	90.8%
ORL 93, MIL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.47,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.58,0	90.7%
SEA 84, DEN 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.68,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.15,0	90.2%