NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	9.5 [94]		MVP	Robert Williams III (BOS): +15.9%
Boston Celtics	108		Comeback	4.6 [455]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -30.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bones Hyland	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bryn Forbes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	5	45%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Facundo Campazzo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	9	64%	0.10	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.02
Austin Rivers	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Davon Reed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.02	15	53%	0.03	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Green	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	6	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
JaMychal Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	42%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	0.02	-0.11	0.02	10	59%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.05
Nikola Jokic	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	0.00	20	52%	-0.02	9	-0.17	4	50%	-0.05

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Williams III	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.01	12	58%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	12	60%	0.20	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.05
Al Horford	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	0.01	16	52%	0.11	5	-0.15	10	80%	0.02
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.03	-0.09	0.06	19	52%	-0.01	2	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.15	-0.16	0.00	17	29%	-0.26	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.3	29.3	14.7	23.7	2.3	39.7	137.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +0.2%

BOS +11.2%

BOS +15.2%

BOS +18.8%

BOS +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	13.9	13.8	14.5	98.1	103.8	110.8
season	14.8	14.9		113.4	112.2
opponent	14.7	14.4		105.7	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.9	14.0	13.5	15.0	13.9
BOS	13.3	14.2	15.3	12.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	47	48	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.11	8	-14	22	13.1	14.5	-1.41	13.9	13.8	0.11
Bryn Forbes	26	26	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.13	-3	-3	0	14.2	13.7	0.50	14.0	13.8	0.22
Davon Reed	3	3	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-5	4	7.7	14.0	-6.37	9.0	14.0	-4.98
Bones Hyland	40	41	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-8	10	12.5	14.7	-2.12	14.2	13.6	0.59
Austin Rivers	31	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-1	-4	14.9	13.4	1.45	13.9	13.8	0.04
JaMychal Green	30	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	0	-6	14.5	13.6	0.86	13.3	14.0	-0.75
Nikola Jokic	73	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.42	2	-8	10	13.6	14.4	-0.80	14.2	13.0	1.21
Will Barton	73	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-5	4	13.4	14.9	-1.45	13.8	13.9	-0.04
Facundo Campazzo	62	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	3	-12	15.0	12.2	2.79	13.7	14.1	-0.40
Zeke Nnaji	60	59	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	5	-16	14.7	12.7	1.92	14.0	13.6	0.34
Aaron Gordon	75	75	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.41	-6	0	-6	13.6	14.6	-1.06	13.6	14.4	-0.75

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	81	80	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.42	10	-4	14	14.1	13.0	1.07	13.7	14.4	-0.67
Marcus Smart	86	85	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.48	6	0	6	13.7	14.7	-1.00	13.9	13.5	0.40
Derrick White	58	59	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-5	16	14.0	13.7	0.29	14.8	12.6	2.29
Robert Williams III	81	81	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.46	3	3	0	13.7	14.4	-0.77	13.9	13.8	0.09
Jaylen Brown	87	87	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	7	-8	13.2	16.9	-3.71	13.7	14.6	-0.88
Al Horford	64	64	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	4	-2	13.8	13.9	-0.10	13.3	14.7	-1.41
Payton Pritchard	23	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.13	3	3	0	14.4	13.7	0.77	13.8	13.9	-0.09
Grant Williams	40	41	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.13	-4	10	-14	14.9	13.2	1.77	13.7	13.9	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.35,0.25,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.32,0.64,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.63,0.68,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 82, PHX 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.45,0.37,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.85,0.96,1	90.3%
SAS 80, LAL 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.43,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.51,0.57,0.46,0.46,0.69,0.63,0.85,0.84,1	90.0%
WAS 98, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.45,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.3,0.28,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.74,1	90.0%