NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	109		Excitement	9.1 [126]		MVP	Jusuf Nurkic (POR): +40.7%
Boston Celtics	105		Comeback	31.1 [26]		LVP	Robert Williams III (BOS): -21.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jusuf Nurkic	0.41	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.41	0.08	0.32	-0.01	16	64%	0.55	5	-0.14	13	77%	-0.00
Robert Covington	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.34	0.01	0.34	0.01	3	50%	0.34	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Ben McLemore	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	7	86%	0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
CJ Elleby	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nassir Little	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.05	0.01	7	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trendon Watford	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
CJ McCollum	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.03	0.01	19	53%	0.05	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Dennis Smith Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Simons	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.11,-0.16	0.09	-0.23	0.01	17	58%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Romeo Langford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.12	-0.02	7	86%	0.24	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.07,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.12	0.02	20	48%	0.15	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.10
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	9	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	19	52%	0.13	4	-0.09	14	79%	0.11
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.03	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.07	0.01	7	81%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Enes Freedom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.22	-0.22	-0.04	-0.18	0.00	4	56%	-0.05	3	-0.16	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.7	28.7	15.4	27.5	1.8	44.5	144.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +83.7%

BOS -45.8%

POR +3.3%

POR +6.0%

POR +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	BOS	NBA	POR	BOS	NBA
this game	14.9	15.5	14.5	116.0	109.4	110.8
season	14.6	14.9		106.9	112.2
opponent	14.7	14.5		105.7	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.0	14.2	13.9	15.5	14.9
BOS	16.7	13.5	16.7	15.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	76	76	1.00	-0.50	1.51	0.42	20	-16	36	14.6	15.9	-1.28	15.5	15.4	0.01
Anfernee Simons	74	75	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.53	8	-4	12	15.4	12.9	2.41	15.3	16.1	-0.82
Nassir Little	67	67	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.44	11	-7	18	14.4	15.9	-1.40	15.8	14.6	1.20
Robert Covington	51	51	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.46	5	-1	6	16.2	13.3	2.90	14.9	16.1	-1.23
CJ McCollum	70	71	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	0	4	15.0	14.4	0.58	15.4	15.7	-0.35
CJ Elleby	31	34	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-6	16	12.2	16.2	-3.97	16.9	14.7	2.16
Dennis Smith Jr.	20	21	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.14	-4	8	-12	12.9	15.4	-2.41	16.1	15.3	0.82
Trendon Watford	19	21	-0.49	0.99	-1.47	-0.08	-14	18	-32	15.1	14.8	0.25	14.7	15.7	-0.95
Ben McLemore	39	40	-0.76	1.26	-2.02	-0.03	-25	29	-54	16.6	13.6	3.02	14.2	16.4	-2.16

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	50	50	0.41	-0.91	1.32	0.26	5	-9	14	15.4	15.5	-0.04	16.7	12.7	3.95
Payton Pritchard	24	23	0.39	-0.89	1.27	0.24	5	-9	14	15.8	15.3	0.44	15.1	14.8	0.31
Romeo Langford	46	46	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.39	17	-21	38	14.3	16.5	-2.13	15.7	14.1	1.61
Enes Freedom	6	6	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.10	-9	5	-14	13.8	15.6	-1.73	7.0	15.4	-8.39
Josh Richardson	25	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	8	-20	16.0	15.3	0.73	12.1	15.7	-3.60
Jayson Tatum	82	81	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.37	2	-6	8	15.4	16.1	-0.72	15.0	13.8	1.17
Grant Williams	68	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.53	5	-9	14	15.4	15.5	-0.06	14.4	15.8	-1.41
Dennis Schroder	42	41	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	8	-20	16.6	14.5	2.11	15.0	14.7	0.31
Jaylen Brown	70	69	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.59	-10	6	-16	15.5	15.4	0.10	15.0	14.5	0.45
Robert Williams III	67	66	-0.92	0.42	-1.35	-0.60	-11	7	-18	15.4	15.5	-0.08	14.5	15.8	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.25,0.21,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.62,0.7,0.64,0.81,0.96,0.97,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.75,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 100, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.9,0.86,0.71,0.45,0.58,0	89.2%
WAS 88, CLE 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.79,0.45,0.31,0	88.9%
DAL 97, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.54,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.52,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.89,0.78,0.67,0.15,0	88.4%