NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	133		Excitement	8.9 [149]		MVP	Terence Davis (SAC): +42.0%
Sacramento Kings	131		Comeback	77.7 [8]		LVP	Buddy Hield (SAC): -6.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Saddiq Bey	0.37	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.37,0.37	0.21	0.20	0.05	18	73%	0.40	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.06
Cory Joseph	0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.31	0.08	0.23	0.00	12	63%	0.33	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Kelly Olynyk	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.06	0.00	17	58%	0.17	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Hamidou Diallo	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.00	5	75%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney McGruder	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1	0.10	-0.01	-0.01	10	75%	0.19	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Josh Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	58%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trey Lyles	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	45%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Cade Cunningham	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.08	1	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Saben Lee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Stewart	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	44%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terence Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42	0.42	0.23	0.19	0.01	23	66%	0.42	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.06	0.01	9	81%	0.19	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	9	65%	0.23	1	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	5	71%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	10	59%	0.08	1	-0.01	14	79%	-0.01
Chimezie Metu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Damian Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.18,-0.06	-0.06	0.08	-0.15	-0.01	20	56%	-0.05	2	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.6	30.1	14.7	30.5	2.0	32.2	140.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +30.7%

DET +14.6%

DET +5.3%

SAC -10.8%

DET +10.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	15.6	13.7	14.5	135.7	132.3	110.8
season	14.6	14.0		105.0	109.2
opponent	14.6	14.4		114.4	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.2	16.3	14.6	17.5	15.6
SAC	13.5	12.5	14.8	14.0	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	45	45	1.18	-0.68	1.85	0.38	27	-25	52	15.2	15.9	-0.67	14.2	13.3	0.94
Rodney McGruder	67	68	1.05	-0.55	1.60	0.46	20	-18	38	15.0	16.7	-1.63	13.7	13.7	0.01
Cory Joseph	76	78	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.48	16	-14	30	15.4	16.0	-0.62	13.5	14.5	-1.06
Saddiq Bey	69	70	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.70	1	1	0	15.5	15.8	-0.33	13.3	14.5	-1.17
Hamidou Diallo	53	57	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	6	-10	15.5	15.6	-0.07	13.9	13.4	0.45
Josh Jackson	43	40	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	-6	14	15.3	15.7	-0.42	13.8	13.6	0.19
Saben Lee	15	13	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.07	-10	12	-22	15.6	15.6	0.05	14.0	13.6	0.36
Isaiah Stewart	43	45	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	0.03	-13	15	-28	15.4	15.7	-0.30	13.4	14.0	-0.61
Trey Lyles	39	38	-0.56	1.06	-1.61	-0.23	-11	13	-24	16.3	15.1	1.28	14.1	13.4	0.68
Cade Cunningham	40	41	-0.83	1.33	-2.16	-0.12	-24	26	-50	17.0	14.6	2.39	13.6	13.7	-0.09

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Bagley III	50	50	0.36	-0.86	1.22	0.15	7	-9	16	13.8	13.6	0.15	15.4	15.7	-0.37
Richaun Holmes	58	56	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.59	19	-21	40	13.0	14.7	-1.74	16.2	14.7	1.44
Terence Davis	76	77	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.47	11	-13	24	13.5	14.3	-0.86	15.7	15.0	0.71
Chimezie Metu	43	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	6	-14	14.4	13.2	1.21	15.0	16.1	-1.10
De'Aaron Fox	78	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-2	2	13.6	14.1	-0.52	15.6	15.5	0.05
Davion Mitchell	47	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.52	5	-7	12	13.9	13.5	0.39	16.5	14.7	1.84
Damian Jones	31	31	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.11	-18	16	-34	14.2	13.5	0.74	14.5	16.0	-1.48
Buddy Hield	40	40	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	11	-24	14.5	13.1	1.36	15.0	15.9	-0.91
Harrison Barnes	72	69	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.43	-13	11	-24	13.3	14.6	-1.30	15.5	15.7	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.66,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.42,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.99,0.97,0.59,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 105, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.88,0.98,0.98,0	89.6%
LAC 122, POR 117	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.7,0.59,0.66,0.75,0.84,0.94,0.59,0	88.9%
ATL 109, DEN 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.77,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.96,0	88.5%